资源型城市能源生产用水需求分析的多情景方法:以唐山市为例

    Analysis of water demand for energy production in resource-based city: Tangshan City as an example

    • 摘要: 传统的资源型城市能源用水需求分析方法,针对不同类型能源生产和加工活动与水资源需求之间的关系研究较少,没有区分不同能源类型的取水量和耗水量,也未考虑能源生产和加工行业本身对水资源的巨大需求。本文采用自下而上的研究方法及多情景方法设置,结合LEAP模型和工业用水核算方法,探讨了在相关能源政策情景下唐山市2016—2050年中长期的能源生产部门产量和对应的能源生产用水量趋势,并根据结果对唐山市减缓乃至解决水资源匮乏困境提供有效的科学参考依据。研究结果表明:①基准情景下,2030年取水量将增至8.10亿m3,耗水量增至1.74亿m3,较2015年分别增长52.25%和33.33%;②产业结构优化情景下,2030年取水量较基准情景减少2.29亿m3,耗水量减少0.51亿m3;③能源结构调整情景下,2030年取水量为6.93亿m3,耗水量为1.86亿m3,较ISO情景分别增加1.12亿m3和0.64亿m3;④发展可再生能源并提高低碳能源效率的情景下,能源用水量显著减少,较TOS情景,峰值时间提前近10 a,2030年取水量减少1.17亿m3,耗水量减少0.04亿m3。即在ISO情景中,通过调整产业结构,降低高能耗产业的比例,可以实现更节能高效的能源生产方式;在LCD情景中,通过持续升级末端设备技术,显著提高了能源利用效率,进而减少了能源消耗;产业结构优化与技术设备更新对能源生产和使用具有重要影响,同时,推广可再生能源和提高能源使用效率,有助于减少水资源消耗,提升能源产业的水资源利用效率,进一步促进能源生产的可持续发展;随着唐山市经济和社会生活水平的提升,电力和热力需求同步增长,导致水资源需求显著增加。通过不同情景模式的预测,针对性优化产业结构和能源结构,逐步减少高耗能能源的使用,扩大可再生能源的应用,有效降低了能源取水量和耗水量,同时在发展可再生能源过程中,应密切关注其耗水量,积极推广节水技术,以提升整个能源产业对水资源的利用效率。

       

      Abstract: The traditional analysis methods of water demand for the energy of resource-based cities have rarely studied the relationship between different types of energy production, processing activities, and water resource demand. There has been little distinction made between water intake and water consumption for different energy types, nor has there been consideration of the substantial water resource needs of the energy production and processing industry itself. This paper employs a bottom-up research approach and a multi-scenario method, integrating the LEAP model and industrial water accounting methods to explore the trends in energy production output and the corresponding energy production water consumption from 2016 to 2050 under various energy policy scenarios in Tangshan City. The results of the study provide an effective scientific reference for alleviating and even resolving the predicament of water resource scarcity in Tangshan City. The findings are as follows: ① reference scenario, by 2030, water extraction and consumption are projected to increase to 810 million cubic meters and 174 million cubic meters, respectively, representing rises of 52.25% and 33.33% compared to 2015. ② Industrial structure optimization scenario: this scenario anticipates a reduction in water extraction by 229 million cubic meters and water consumption by 51 million cubic meters by 2030 compared to the baseline scenario. ③ Energy structure optimization scenario: adjustments in the energy structure are expected to result in water extraction and consumption of 693 million cubic meters and 186 million cubic meters by 2030, indicating increases of 112 million cubic meters and 64 million cubic meters compared to the ISO scenario. ④ Focusing on the development of renewable energy and enhanced energy efficiency, this scenario significantly reduces energy-related water consumption compared to other scenarios. Water extraction peaks nearly ten years earlier than in the TOS scenario, with reductions of 117 million cubic meters in water extraction and 4 million cubic meters in consumption by 2030 relative to the TOS scenario. In the ISO scenario, by adjusting the industrial structure and reducing the proportion of high-energy-consuming industries, a more energy-efficient and productive energy production mode can be achieved. In the LCD scenario, by continuously upgrading the technology of terminal equipment, the energy utilization efficiency has been significantly improved, thereby reducing energy consumption. The optimization of the industrial structure and the renewal of technological equipment have an important impact on energy production and use. Meanwhile, promoting renewable energy and improving energy use efficiency are helpful for reducing water consumption, enhancing the water resource utilization efficiency of the energy industry and further facilitating the sustainable development of energy production. With the improvement of Tangshan City’s economy and social living standards, the demand for electricity and heat has increased simultaneously, resulting in a significant increase in the demand for water resources. Through the prediction of different scenario models, targeted optimization of the industrial structure and energy structure has been carried out. The use of high-energy-consuming energy has been gradually reduced and the application of renewable energy has been expanded, effectively reducing the water intake and consumption for energy. Meanwhile, during the development of renewable energy, close attention should be paid to its water consumption and water-saving technologies should be actively promoted to improve the utilization efficiency of water resources in the entire energy industry.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回