复杂网络视角下全球ICT隐含金属流动格局及演化特征研究

    Patterns and evolutionary characteristics of global ICT-embodied metal flows : a complex network perspective

    • 摘要: 信息通信(ICT)产业的快速发展推动了全球经济的增长,但也带来了对金属资源的持续消耗。随着ICT产品在全球范围内的生产和消费,其隐含金属在全球各经济体之间流动,形成了复杂的网络结构。为了揭示全球ICT隐含金属的流动格局及演化特征,本文结合投入产出模型和复杂网络模型,核算2000—2022年全球ICT隐含金属的消耗,构建有向加权的隐含金属流动网络,分析全球ICT隐含金属流动网络的整体特征,识别全球ICT隐含金属流动中的关键地区和关键路径,并进一步探讨流动网络中的社团结构及其演化过程。研究结果表明:全球ICT隐含金属呈现增长趋势,其中约一半参与跨区域流动;全球ICT隐含金属流动网络表现出典型的小世界特征,某一地区的变化可以迅速传导并影响全球流动;少数地区在ICT隐含金属流动中扮演着重要的角色,美国、德国、英国等地区是关键的ICT隐含金属流入地区,中国大陆、美国、中国台湾、墨西哥等地区控制着ICT隐含金属的流出,其他亚太地区、美国、中国大陆等地区在流动中起着重要的“桥梁”作用;前20%的流动路径贡献了约90%的流量,“中国大陆→美国”“墨西哥→美国”及“中国大陆→印度”等关键路径的流量逐年上升;ICT隐含金属流动呈现明显的集聚特征,逐渐演化为以中国大陆、英德、日韩和美国为核心的四个社团,且社团内部联系逐渐增强。基于以上研究结果,提出了相关政策建议,以推动ICT隐含金属的可持续利用。

       

      Abstract: The rapid development of the information and communication technology (ICT) industry has driven global economic growth, but it has also resulted in the continuous consumption of metal resources. With the global production and consumption of ICT products, the embodied metals associated with these products flow across different economies, leading to the formation of a complex network structure. To reveal the flow patterns and evolutionary characteristics of global ICT-embodied metals, this paper combines input-output model and complex network model to calculate the consumption of global ICT-embodied metals from 2000 to 2022. The study constructs directed and weighted embodied metal flow networks, analyzes the overall characteristics, identifies the key regions and key paths in the networks, and further explores the community structure and its evolutionary process. The results show that global ICT-embodied metals are on the rise, with approximately half involved in cross-regional flows. The global ICT-embodied metal flow networks exhibit typical small-world characteristics, and changes in one region can quickly transmit and influence the global flows. A few regions play key roles in the ICT-embodied metal flows. The United States, Germany, the United Kingdom are key inflow regions, while Chinese Mainland, the United States, Chinese Taiwan, and Mexico control the outflow, and RoW Asia and Pacific, the United States, and Chinese Mainland serve as crucial bridging regions. Furthermore, the top 20% of flow paths account for about 90% of the total flows. The flow of key paths, such as “Chinese Mainland→USA” “Mexico→USA” and “Chinese Mainland→India”, shows an increasing trend year by year. ICT-embodied metal flows show a clear clustering pattern and gradually evolves into four communities with the cores of Chinese Mainland, the United Kingdom and Germany, Japan and South Korea, and the United States. And the intra-community connections are gradually strengthening. Based on the results, this study proposes relevant policy recommendations to support the sustainable utilization of ICT-embodied metals.

       

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