2024年中国自然资源经济形势回顾与展望

    Outlook and overview of natural resource economic situation of China in 2024

    • 摘要: 2024年,中国自然资源要素管理政策与宏观经济政策同向发力,助力中国经济平稳运行,成为全球重要增长引擎。本文通过编制自然资源供给指数,测度自然资源要素供给水平,揭示自然资源保障经济运行总体态势。基于长期态势分析,结合短期形势研判,对中国土地市场、矿业市场、测绘地理信息行业的发展现状进行了详细解析,得出2024年中国自然资源要素供给继续保持在合理区间,为促进经济高质量发展提供了重要动力。土地要素支撑重大基础设施项目顺利开工建设,助力房地产市场止跌回稳,但交通运输用地供应面积持续下降;战略性矿产矿业权供给增加,资源安全保障能力提升,但矿业行业整体利润同比下跌;测绘地理信息行业规模进一步扩大,带动融合型新业态发展,但安全风险隐患犹存。展望2025年,全球和中国经济虽然整体延续复苏态势,但仍有多重不确定性因素。自然资源领域稳经济促发展的着力点主要是充分发挥国土空间规划引领作用,实现土地高效优质利用;坚持先立后破,积极应对矿业市场供需阶段性失衡,逐步完善战略性矿产资源探采供储销统筹和衔接体系;统筹发展和安全,做好测绘地理信息安全监管,助力数字经济,实现高质量发展和高水平安全的良性互动。

       

      Abstract: In 2024, China’s natural resource management policies and macroeconomic policies work together to help the China’s economy run smoothly and become an important global growth engine. This paper compiles a natural resource supply index to measure the level of natural resource factor supply and reveal the overall situation of natural resource guarantee economic operation. Based on long-term situation analysis and combined with short-term situation analysis, a detailed analysis of the development status of China’s land market, mining market, and surveying and mapping geographic information industry is conducted. It is concluded that the supply of natural resources in China will continue to remain within a reasonable range in 2024, providing important impetus for promoting high-quality economic development. The smooth commencement of major infrastructure projects supported by land resources has helped stabilize the real estate market, but the supply area of transportation land continues to decline. The supply of strategic mineral mining rights has increased, and the ability to ensure resource security has improved, but the overall profit of the mining industry has declined year-on-year. The scale of the surveying and mapping geographic information industry has further expanded, driving the development of integrated new formats, but security risks and hidden dangers still exist. Looking ahead to 2025, although the global and China’s economies continue to recover as a whole, there are still multiple uncertainties. The main focus of stabilizing the economy and promoting development in the field of natural resources is to fully leverage the leading role of national spatial planning and achieve efficient and high-quality utilization of land; adhere to the principle of establishing first and then breaking down, actively respond to the stage imbalance of supply and demand in the mineral market, and gradually improve the overall planning and connection system for the exploration, mining, supply, storage, and sales of strategic mineral resources; coordinate development and security, do a good job in monitoring the security of surveying and mapping geographic information, support the digital economy, and achieve a positive interaction between high-quality development and high-level security.

       

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