2024年国内外油气资源形势分析及展望

    Analysis of oil and gas resources situation at home and abroad in 2024 and outlook

    • 摘要: 2024年,在大国政治博弈加剧背景下,热点地区持续动荡,2022年开始的俄乌冲突延宕至今,巴以冲突扩大升级,以色列与伊朗支持的“抵抗轴心”轮番对抗,中东局势持续升温。世界经济保持韧性,通胀持续下行,主要经济体开启降息通道,全球经济一定程度实现“软着陆”。在当前宏观经济形势和中长期能源转型背景下,全球石油需求增长趋缓。“欧佩克+”产油国推迟增产计划维持减产力度,非“欧佩克+”产油国逐步扩大市场份额。石油供需从紧平衡转向宽松。国际油价在供需基本面、宏观经济形势、金融货币政策、地缘突发事件等多空因素叠加下呈现区间震荡,重心先高后低走势。全球天然气供需两端均实现增长,欧洲市场供需矛盾得到缓解,在转变能源消费结构、降低对俄气依赖的过程中能源安全仍然脆弱;亚洲市场天然气需求旺盛,拉动了全球消费增长。我国国民经济持续回升向好,新质生产力稳步发展,矿政管理改革持续推进,油气找矿成效显著,常规油气勘探在陆上大型含油气盆地、近海海域新区带、新类型、新层系取得多项新发现。非常规油气勘探在四川盆地及周缘、鄂尔多斯盆地、准噶尔盆地、渤海湾盆地、松辽盆地、苏北盆地等取得多项重要突破和进展。原油产量继续稳定增长,全年产量近2.13亿t。天然气(含页岩气和煤层气等)产量继续保持快速增长,达到2 464亿m3

       

      Abstract: In 2024, against the background of intensified political games among major powers, hot spots continue to be turbulent. The Russia-Ukraine conflict that began in 2022 has been postponed to the present day. The Palestinian Israeli conflict has expanded and escalated. Israel and the “axis of resistance” supported by Iran enganged in a series of confrontations. The situation in the Middle East continues to heat up. The world economy maintains resilience, inflation continues to decline, major economies have opened up interest rate cutting channels, and the global economy has achieved a certain degree of “soft landing”. Against the backdrop of the current macroeconomic situation and medium - to long-term energy transition, global oil demand growth is slowing down. OPEC+ oil producing countries have postponed their production increase plans to maintain their production cuts, while non OPEC+ oil producing countries are gradually expanding their market share. Oil supply and demand have shifted from tight balance to loose. International oil prices exhibit range oscillations under the combination of supply and demand fundamentals, macroeconomic conditions, financial and monetary policies, geopolitical emergencies, and other bullish and bearish factors, with a focus on first rising and then falling. Both ends of global natural gas supply and demand have achieved growth, and the supply-demand imbalance in the European market has been alleviated. Energy security remains fragile in the process of transforming energy consumption structure and reducing dependence on Russian natural gas; the strong demand for natural gas in the Asian market has driven global consumption growth. China’s national economy continues to recover and improve, new quality productivity is steadily developing, mining management reform is continuously advancing, and significant achievements have been made in oil and gas exploration. Conventional oil and gas exploration has made multiple new discoveries in large-scale onshore oil and gas basins, new offshore areas, new types, and new strata. Unconventional oil and gas exploration has made many important breakthroughs and progress in Sichuan Basin and its surrounding areas, Ordos Basin, the Junggar Basin, Bohai Bay Basin, Songliao Basin and Subei Basin. Crude oil production continues to steadily increase, with an annual output of nearly 213 million tons. The production of natural gas (including shale gas and coalbed methane, etc.) continues to grow rapidly, reaching 246 billion cubic meters.

       

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