2025年全球矿业展望

    Global mining outlook in 2025

    • 摘要: 2024年,尽管面临高通胀、地缘政治局势紧张和贸易保护主义蔓延,世界经济仍然实现了稳定增长。美国等发达经济体增长超出预期,中国、印度等发展中国家保持中高速增长。新兴石油国家圭亚那连续实现两位数增长,欧佩克国家经济表现比较稳定,非洲国家发展速度加快。受到矿业公司融资困难的影响,2024年世界矿产勘查投资连续第二年小幅下降。澳大利亚矿产勘查投资七年来首次减少,钻探工作量连续第三年下降。美国勘查投入持续增长,锂矿、稀土矿勘查开发取得重要进展。非洲中南部和西部勘探活跃而北东部偏冷的局面没有发生大的变化。拉美地区矿业投资吸引力下降,但阿根廷铜矿、巴西稀土矿成为热点。欧洲发达国家开始重视矿产勘查,瑞典连续发现大型稀土矿。全球矿产品市场继续震荡分化,煤炭、石油、天然气等大宗矿产品供需矛盾缓解,而镓、锗等稀散金属供应存在瓶颈。地缘政治紧张使得关键矿产重要性日益凸显,各国目前都认识到了矿产的价值,采矿业在全球政治中的地位上升。能源转型带来机遇,但矿业公司经营面临风险继续上升,主要是融资困难、成本上升等。2025年,全球矿业仍面临帝国主义、霸权主义、资源民族主义等各种挑战和风险,锑、稀土、铜、锂、石墨等战略矿产仍将是世界矿产勘查开发的热点。

       

      Abstract: Despite high inflation, geopolitical tensions and the spread of trade protectionism, the world economy still achieved stable growth in 2024. Growth in developed economies, such as the United States exceeded expectations, with medium-to-high-speed growth in developing countries, such as China and India. Emerging oil country Guyana has achieved consecutive double-digit growth, the economic performance of OPEC countries has been relatively stable, and the development speed of African countries has accelerated. Global mineral exploration budget fell slightly for the second consecutive year in 2024 amid the financing difficulties of mining companies. Investment in mineral exploration in Australia fell for the first time in seven years, with drilling activity falling for the third consecutive year. Exploration investment in the United States continues to grow, and major progress has been made in lithium and rare earth. The exploration activities are still active in central, southern and western Africa and relatively cold in the north-eastern part. The attractiveness of mining investment in Latin America has declined, but copper in Argentina and rare earth in Brazil have become hot spots. Developed countries in Europe began to pay attention to mineral exploration, and a series of large rare earth deposits discovered in Sweden. The global mineral products market continues to fluctuate and diverge. The contradiction between supply and demand of bulk commodities such as coal, oil and natural gas has eased, while there are bottlenecks in the supply of rare earth metals such as gallium and germanium. Geopolitical tensions have made critical minerals increasingly important. Countries now recognize the value of minerals, and the mining industry has risen in global politics. Energy transition brings opportunities, but the risks faced by mining companies’ operations continue to rise, mainly due to difficulties in financing and rising costs. In 2025, the global mining industry will still face various challenges and risks such as imperialism, hegemonism, and resource nationalism. Strategic minerals such as antimony, rare earths, copper, lithium, and graphite will still be hot spots for mineral exploration and development in the world.

       

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