能源转型矿产资源产业链供应风险研究综述

    Research review on supply risks in the industry chain of energy transition mineral resources

    • 摘要: 向清洁能源发展是实现“双碳”目标的有效手段,而生产清洁能源需要消耗大量战略性关键矿产资源,这些资源被国际能源署(IEA)称为能源转型矿产资源。近年来,公共卫生安全事件、地缘政治问题层出不穷,阻碍各环节矿产品贸易,引发矿产品供应风险。本研究从全产业链视角出发,按照风险识别、风险评估和风险应对三个维度,梳理能源转型矿产资源产业链供应风险相关研究。在风险识别维度,能源转型矿产资源产业链供应风险包含四层含义:重要性、稳定性、价格合理性、不危害生态环境。在风险评估维度,划分为风险静态评价和风险动态传播。在风险静态评价中,根据产业链上中下游和回收环节整理十类供应风险评价指标;在风险动态传播中,分析供给短缺风险传播框架。在风险应对维度,针对不同类型矿产资源供应短缺,基于文献梳理应对风险策略。通过梳理上述文献,发现在能源转型矿产资源产业链供应风险的内涵和传播演化方面还有待继续研究。基于此,提出两个前沿挑战:一是能源转型矿产资源产业链供应风险的新内涵;二是能源转型矿产资源产业链供应风险的精确传播演化。

       

      Abstract: Moving towards clean energy is an effective means of realizing the dual-carbon goal, while the production of clean energy requires the consumption of a large number of strategic and critical mineral resources, which are referred to by the International Energy Agency (IEA) as energy transition mineral resources. In recent years, public health security events and geopolitical issues have emerged, hindering the trade of minerals in all segments and triggering risks in the supply of minerals. Starting from the perspective of the whole industry chain, the paper combs the studies related to the supply risk of the energy transition mineral resources industry chain in accordance with the process of risk identification, risk assessment and risk response. In terms of risk identification, the supply risk of the energy transition mineral resources industry chain contains four layers of meanings: importance, stability, price reasonableness, and not jeopardizing the ecological environment. In terms of risk assessment, it is divided into risk static evaluation and risk dynamic propagation. In risk static evaluation, 10 types of supply risk evaluation indicators are organized according to the upstream, midstream, downstream and recycling links of the industry chain. In risk dynamic propagation, the propagation process of supply shortage risk is analyzed. In risk response, based on a literature review, propose risk mitigation strategies for supply shortages of different types of mineral resources. Through combing the above literature, it is found that there is still room for further research on the connotation and propagation evolution of the supply risk of the energy transition mineral resources industry chain. Based on this, two frontier challenges are proposed: firstly, the new connotation of the supply risk of the energy transition mineral resources industry chain; secondly, the precise propagation evolution of the supply risk of the energy transition mineral resources industry chain.

       

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