2024年中国天然气市场发展形势及展望

    Development of China’s 2024 natural gas market: review and prospect

    • 摘要: 作为清洁、低碳的化石能源,天然气在我国能源转型过程中发挥着重要作用。综合市场供需分析和产业链资料调查,本文总结了2024年中国天然气发展的国际环境、供需平衡和发展生态等。研究发现,2024年全球天然气供需双增,从紧平衡向宽松转变,主要市场气价整体回落;中国天然气消费快速增长并创新高,突破4 000亿m3;新一轮找矿突破战略行动高效推进,陆上中西部和海域勘探均取得重大突破,储量高位增长,产量增至近2 500亿m3;管道气、液化天然气进口同比分别增长13%、8%,进口来源呈多元化;西气东输四线取得阶段性成果,中俄东线全线贯通,气源地管输建设不断强化,天然气掺氢输送取得突破;随着一批新的储气库和LNG接收站相继投产,中国储气调峰能力快速提升,同比增加80亿m3;天然气产业法治体系建设取得重大突破,《能源法》和新《矿产资源法》出台,为油气产业可持续发展提供法治保障;《天然气利用管理办法》正式出台,明确了促进天然气节约使用、保障民生用气安全、实现“双碳”目标的利用原则;管理政策始终聚焦产供储销建设,全方位谋划保障天然气资源供应安全。展望2025年,预计全球天然气供应持续增长,需求增速放缓;中国天然气产量与消费量持续增长,分别超过2 600亿m3和4 500亿m3。2025年,中国天然气产业政策核心是强化勘探开发、推动基础设施建设和推进市场化改革进程。

       

      Abstract: As a clean and low-carbon fossil fuel, natural gas plays an important role in China’s energy transition. Based on a comprehensive analysis of market supply and demand, as well as a survey of the industrial chain data, this paper summarizes the international environment, supply-demand balance, and development ecosystem of China’s natural gas in 2024. The study finds that in 2024, global natural gas supply and demand both increased, shifting from a tight balance to a more relaxed situation, with overall gas prices in major markets declining. China’s natural gas consumption grew rapidly, reaching a new high of over 400 billion cubic meters. The new round of prospecting breakthrough strategic action is efficiently advanced, with significant breakthroughs in exploration in the central-western regions and offshore areas, leading to substantial increases in reserves and production reaching nearly 250 billion cubic meters. Imports of pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) increased by 13% and 8% year-on-year, respectively, with a diversification of import sources. The construction of the fourth West-East Gas Pipeline achieves phased results, and the China-Russia East Line is fully operational. The construction of gas source pipeline transportation is continuously strengthened, and breakthroughs are made in the co-transportation of natural gas and hydrogen. With the commissioning of a number of new gas storage facilities and LNG receiving terminals, China’s gas storage and peak-shaving capacity increased rapidly, by 8 billion cubic meters year-on-year. Major breakthroughs are made in the construction of the legal system for the natural gas industry, with the introduction of the Energy Law and the new Mineral Resources Law, providing legal guarantees for the sustainable development of the oil and gas industry. Administrative Measures on Natural Gas Utilization are officially promulgated, clarifying the utilization principles of promoting natural gas conservation, ensuring the safety of living consumption, and achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. Management policies have always focused on the construction of production, supply, storage, and sales, and have comprehensively planned to ensure the security of natural gas resource supply. Looking ahead to 2025, it is expected that the global natural gas supply will continue to grow, while the growth rate of demand will slow down. In China, both the production and consumption of natural gas are projected to keep increasing, surpassing 260 billion cubic meters and 450 billion cubic meters respectively. In 2025, the core of China’s natural gas industry policy will be to strengthen exploration and development, promote infrastructure construction, and advance the process of market-oriented reform.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回