Abstract:
Natural gas will be a critical resource to ensure that global energy transitions are able to move at the scale and speed necessary to limit global warming. At present, the international natural gas trade market is facing a high uncertainty, and studying the resilience of the international natural gas trade network is of great significance to ensure the security, stability and sustainable development of the international natural gas trade, and it also has enlightenment for China’s international energy cooperation. In this paper, five natural gas international trade networks are constructed according to different phase states of natural gas and different forms of trade contracts. Firstly, the static resilience characteristics of each network are analyzed, and then the dynamic resilience of the network is measured by simulation. Finally, the anti-interference ability of the network nodes is evaluated. The results show that under the four simulation scenarios, the resilience performance of liquefied natural gas network is better than that of gaseous natural gas network, and the resilience performance of short-term contract liquefied natural gas network is better than that of medium and long-term contract liquefied natural gas network. The short-term contract liquefied natural gas network has the highest level of comprehensive resilience, and its trade diversity and flexibility enable the network to maintain a high functional total in both the disturbance and recovery phases. The comprehensive resilience level of gaseous natural gas network is the lowest, and it is more sensitive to disturbance, and the ability of damage absorption and function recovery is weak. From the perspective of gaseous and liquefied natural gas trade networks, the European market has strong transit capacity and diffusion capacity. As a major participant in the international natural gas trade, China has shown strong anti-interference. According to the research conclusion, the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward for how to carry out international energy cooperation of natural gas scientifically and enhance anti-interference ability of natural gas international trade risk.