天然气国际贸易网络韧性评估及对中国的启示

    Resilience evaluation of natural gas international trade network and its implications for China

    • 摘要: 天然气将是确保全球能源转型能够以限制全球变暖所需的规模和速度进行的关键资源。当前,国际天然气贸易市场面临高度不确定性,研究天然气国际贸易网络韧性对保障天然气国际贸易安全、稳定和可持续发展具有重要意义,对我国开展国际能源合作亦有启示作用。本文基于2023年国际天然气贸易数据,按照天然气不同相态和不同贸易合同形式进行划分,构建五个天然气国际贸易网络。首先分析各网络静态韧性特征,然后通过模拟进行动态网络韧性测度,最后对网络节点的抗干扰能力进行评价。研究发现:在四种模拟情景下,液化天然气网络韧性表现均优于气态天然气网络,短期合同液化天然气网络韧性表现均优于中长期合同液化天然气网络;短期合同液化天然气网络的综合韧性水平最高,其贸易多元性和灵活性使得网络在扰动与恢复阶段均能保持较高功能总量。气态天然气网络的综合韧性水平最低,对扰动更加敏感,吸收破坏与功能恢复能力较弱。综合气态天然气和液化天然气贸易网络来看,欧洲市场具有强大的中转能力和扩散能力。中国作为国际天然气贸易的主要参与者表现出较强抗干扰性。根据研究结论,针对我国如何科学地开展天然气国际能源合作,增强天然气国际贸易风险抗干扰能力提出相应的政策建议。

       

      Abstract: Natural gas will be a critical resource to ensure that global energy transitions are able to move at the scale and speed necessary to limit global warming. At present, the international natural gas trade market is facing a high uncertainty, and studying the resilience of the international natural gas trade network is of great significance to ensure the security, stability and sustainable development of the international natural gas trade, and it also has enlightenment for China’s international energy cooperation. In this paper, five natural gas international trade networks are constructed according to different phase states of natural gas and different forms of trade contracts. Firstly, the static resilience characteristics of each network are analyzed, and then the dynamic resilience of the network is measured by simulation. Finally, the anti-interference ability of the network nodes is evaluated. The results show that under the four simulation scenarios, the resilience performance of liquefied natural gas network is better than that of gaseous natural gas network, and the resilience performance of short-term contract liquefied natural gas network is better than that of medium and long-term contract liquefied natural gas network. The short-term contract liquefied natural gas network has the highest level of comprehensive resilience, and its trade diversity and flexibility enable the network to maintain a high functional total in both the disturbance and recovery phases. The comprehensive resilience level of gaseous natural gas network is the lowest, and it is more sensitive to disturbance, and the ability of damage absorption and function recovery is weak. From the perspective of gaseous and liquefied natural gas trade networks, the European market has strong transit capacity and diffusion capacity. As a major participant in the international natural gas trade, China has shown strong anti-interference. According to the research conclusion, the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward for how to carry out international energy cooperation of natural gas scientifically and enhance anti-interference ability of natural gas international trade risk.

       

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