面向智能化煤矿建设的煤炭行业数字化市场空间测算分析

    Analysis of digitalization market space measurement in coal industry for intelligent coal mine construction

    • 摘要: 随着智能化煤矿建设的推进,煤炭行业数字化转型不断深入,测算煤炭行业数字化转型市场空间对煤炭行业数字化转型具有重要意义。本研究旨在构建煤炭行业数字化转型市场空间的测算框架与方法体系,以量化其发展规模、结构特征及其不确定因素,为煤炭行业转型提供决策支持。首先提出数字化转型市场空间测算方法;其次基于灰色预测和埃尔米特插值法预测了中国未来六年的煤矿数量,同时借助ICT技术测算了煤矿智能化建设中的参与度、不同规模煤矿的投资比重,在此基础上明确了煤炭行业数字化转型空间的大小,并分析了煤炭行业数字化转型市场空间结构;最后基于情景分析理论,探索了煤炭行业数字化转型市场空间不确定因素,提出煤炭行业数字化转型空间提升策略。研究结论表明,煤矿数量减少与规模集中趋势共同驱动智能化投资需求,ICT技术降本与政策引导是市场增长的核心动力,未来需强化煤矿数字化能力建设、优化跨区域技术协同机制,并通过动态情景规划应对政策波动与技术风险。研究结果为煤炭行业数字化转型空间分析提供研究框架,助力煤炭行业实现高效、绿色、安全转型。

       

      Abstract: With the advancement of intelligent coal mine construction, the digital transformation of the coal industry has been deepening, and measuring the market space of digital transformation of the coal industry is of great significance to the digital transformation of the coal industry. This study aims to construct a framework and methodology system for measuring the market space of digital transformation in the coal industry, in order to quantify its development scale, structural characteristics and its uncertainties, and to provide decision support for the transformation of the coal industry. Firstly, the digital transformation market space measurement method is proposed. Secondly, the number of coal mines in China in the next six years is predicted based on gray prediction and Ermitage interpolation, and the participation in the intelligent construction of coal mines as well as the investment proportion of coal mines of different scales are measured with the help of ICT technology, on the basis of which, the magnitude of the digital transformation space of the coal industry is clarified, and the structure of the digital transformation market space of the coal industry is analyzed. Finally, based on the theory of scenario analysis, it explores the uncertainty factors of the digital transformation market space of the coal industry, and proposes strategies to enhance the digital transformation space of the coal industry. The conclusion of the study shows that the reduction in the number of coal mines and the trend of scale concentration jointly drive the demand for intelligent investment, and ICT technology cost reduction and policy guidance are the core driving force for market growth. In the future, it is necessary to strengthen the construction of digital capacity in coal mines, optimize the mechanism of cross-regional technological synergies, and cope with the policy fluctuations and technological risks through dynamic scenario planning. The results of the study provide a research framework for the spatial analysis of the digital transformation of the coal industry, and help the coal industry realize efficient, green and safe transformation.

       

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