Abstract:
As important mineral resources in China, lead-zinc rank first in the world in terms of mining, smelting, and consumption. However, with the high-intensity mining of lead-zinc resources in China over the years, the total output of lead-zinc concentrates will decrease to around 6 million tons in 2024, and the static recoverable years of lead-zinc will be lower than the global average level. The expansion of China’s lead-zinc smelting capacity has led to a continuous increase in the dependence on foreign raw materials. In 2024, the proportion of lead-zinc raw materials imported from abroad exceeded 30%, and the import source countries are relatively concentrated. The policy changes and trade barriers of overseas resource countries have intensified the risk of stable supply of lead-zinc resources. Although Chinese enterprises have acquired nearly 70 million tons of equity resources and 850 000 tons of metal production through overseas mergers and acquisitions, supporting 35% of the domestic supply gap, but the international competitiveness is still weaker than that of global leading enterprises. After nearly a decade of structural adjustment, the concentration of lead-zinc smelting in China has further increased, especially in the coastal regions and large diversified smelting enterprises, which have shown advantages in utilizing imported raw materials, logistics, and comprehensive utilization. Since 2022, domestic smelting capacity has entered a new round of expansion centered on technological upgrading and large-scale production, and the smelting industry is facing a situation of both tight raw material supply and overcapacity. In 2024, the processing fees for lead-zinc concentrates both domestically and internationally have fallen to historically rare extreme levels, especially the processing fees for imported ores, which once fell to negative values, deviating from the production cost bearing capacity of smelting enterprises and seriously affecting the stable and healthy development of the lead-zinc industry chain and supply chain. In addition, the strategic value of rare and precious metals such as indium and germanium associated with lead-zinc is highlighted, and changes in rare and precious metal trade policies may also indirectly affect the import of lead-zinc raw materials and product trade. Suggestions are made to enhance China’s ability to safeguard lead-zinc resources by increasing domestic resource exploration, deepening international cooperation, elevating the strategic position of lead-zinc carriers, and expanding high-end new applications, in order to support national strategic resource security and sustainable development.