2024年我国铅锌资源发展趋势及展望

    Development trends of China’s lead-zinc resources in 2024 and prospect

    • 摘要: 铅锌作为我国的重要矿产资源,开采、冶炼与消费量均居世界第一位。然而,随着多年来我国铅锌资源较高强度的开采,2024年铅锌精矿总产量降至600万t左右,铅锌静态可采年限均低于全球平均水平。我国铅锌冶炼产能的扩张导致原料对外依存度持续攀升,2024年铅锌原料外采比超30%,且进口来源国相对集中,海外资源国政策变化与贸易壁垒加剧了铅锌资源稳定供应的风险。尽管中资企业通过海外并购获取权益资源量近7 000万t,权益产量85万t金属量,支撑国内35%的供应缺口,但国际竞争力仍弱于全球头部企业。经历了近十年的结构调整,我国铅锌冶炼集中度进一步提升,特别是沿江沿海地区、大型多元化冶炼企业在利用进口原料、物流、综合利用方面显现优势。2022年以来,国内冶炼产能进入以技术升级和大型化为核心的新一轮扩张,冶炼行业面临原料供应紧张与产能过剩并存局面,2024年,国内外铅锌精矿加工费均跌至历史罕见的极端水平,尤其是进口矿加工费一度跌至负值,已背离冶炼企业生产成本承受能力,严重影响铅锌产业链供应链的稳定健康发展。此外,铅锌伴生的铟、锗等稀贵金属战略价值凸显,稀贵金属贸易政策的变化也有可能对铅锌原料进口和产品贸易产生间接影响。建议从加大国内资源勘探、深化国际合作、提升铅锌载体战略地位、拓展高端新应用等方面提升我国铅锌资源保障能力,助力国家战略资源安全与可持续发展。

       

      Abstract: As important mineral resources in China, lead-zinc rank first in the world in terms of mining, smelting, and consumption. However, with the high-intensity mining of lead-zinc resources in China over the years, the total output of lead-zinc concentrates will decrease to around 6 million tons in 2024, and the static recoverable years of lead-zinc will be lower than the global average level. The expansion of China’s lead-zinc smelting capacity has led to a continuous increase in the dependence on foreign raw materials. In 2024, the proportion of lead-zinc raw materials imported from abroad exceeded 30%, and the import source countries are relatively concentrated. The policy changes and trade barriers of overseas resource countries have intensified the risk of stable supply of lead-zinc resources. Although Chinese enterprises have acquired nearly 70 million tons of equity resources and 850 000 tons of metal production through overseas mergers and acquisitions, supporting 35% of the domestic supply gap, but the international competitiveness is still weaker than that of global leading enterprises. After nearly a decade of structural adjustment, the concentration of lead-zinc smelting in China has further increased, especially in the coastal regions and large diversified smelting enterprises, which have shown advantages in utilizing imported raw materials, logistics, and comprehensive utilization. Since 2022, domestic smelting capacity has entered a new round of expansion centered on technological upgrading and large-scale production, and the smelting industry is facing a situation of both tight raw material supply and overcapacity. In 2024, the processing fees for lead-zinc concentrates both domestically and internationally have fallen to historically rare extreme levels, especially the processing fees for imported ores, which once fell to negative values, deviating from the production cost bearing capacity of smelting enterprises and seriously affecting the stable and healthy development of the lead-zinc industry chain and supply chain. In addition, the strategic value of rare and precious metals such as indium and germanium associated with lead-zinc is highlighted, and changes in rare and precious metal trade policies may also indirectly affect the import of lead-zinc raw materials and product trade. Suggestions are made to enhance China’s ability to safeguard lead-zinc resources by increasing domestic resource exploration, deepening international cooperation, elevating the strategic position of lead-zinc carriers, and expanding high-end new applications, in order to support national strategic resource security and sustainable development.

       

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