国际稀土产业链安全研究:来自境外亚太地区的潜在挑战

    Research on the development of the international rare earth industry chain: potential challenges from the Asia-Pacific Region outside China

    • 摘要: 稀土是重要的战略性矿产资源,稀土产业链“去中国化”的产业布局构成对中国稀土产业在全球竞争地位的潜在挑战。本文围绕亚太地区国家即美国、澳大利亚、日本、韩国、越南等国家的稀土资源开发组织和产业链国际合作展开研究。研究得出以下结论:①亚太地区是全球稀土供应链和产业链最活跃的区域,其不仅资源产量大,而且生产产能逐渐形成规模、产业链相对完整。亚太地区稀土产业链:澳大利亚资源为核心—马来西亚粗加工—韩国和日本深加工—终端产品进入美国,满足军民两用终端市场应用。②美国在亚太地区主导稀土产业链整合,该产业链形成的国际分工与合作体现了美国对关键产业的控制能力。③日本、韩国、澳大利亚均是美国的“贸易伙伴关系”国家,可从贸易中获得美国的关税优惠。另外,美国不愿意接受稀土产业链前端污染成本,产业环境规制尚没有改变,因此,亚太地区稀土产业链为越南参与预留了空间。④从长远看,亚太地区稀土产业链或对中国稀土海外市场构成竞争,其不仅表现为日本、韩国、美国、欧盟之间政府协作,还包括企业微观层面经济合约,稀土中游、下游企业用订单对前端企业生产投资作预付,构成了中国境外稀土全产业链成本和风险共担。建议国家坚定保护中国稀土产能集中度高的优势,限制国内产业转移和产能境外输出。不断提升稀土产品科技竞争力、市场竞争力,以及自动化科技应用水平。此为应对美国主导的稀土产业链竞争的根本策略,也是遏制越南等国家劳动力要素竞争优势的有效手段,在全球大国经济竞争的当下,中国需将产业和产能留在中国。

       

      Abstract: Rare earths are strategic mineral resources. The “de-Sinicization” of the industrial layout in the rare earth supply chain poses a significant threat to China’s global competitive edge in the rare earth industry. This paper investigates the organizations involved in rare earth resource development and international cooperation within the industrial chain among countries in the Asia-Pacific Region, including the United States, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and others. The research leads to the following conclusions: ① the Asia-Pacific Region is the most dynamic area in the global rare earth supply and industry chain. It not only boasts a significant output of resources but also features a gradually maturing production capacity scale and a relatively complete industry chain. The rare earth industry chain in the Asia-Pacific Region is centered on Australian resources for raw material supply, undergoes preliminary processing in Malaysia, advanced processing in South Korea and Japan, and finally, the end products are exported to the United States to fulfill the application demands of both military and civilian markets. ② The United States spearheads the integration of the rare earth industry chain in the Asia-Pacific Region. The international division of labor and cooperation within this industry chain exemplify the United States’ control over key industries. ③ Japan, South Korea, and Australia are all “Free Trade Partnership” countries in the United States market and benefit from tariff advantages in their trade relations. Moreover, the United States has been hesitant to bear the environmental costs associated with the upstream stages of the rare earth industry chain, and its environmental regulations for this sector remain largely unchanged. Consequently, the Asia-Pacific Region rare earth industry chain offers potential opportunities for Vietnam’s participation. ④ In the long term, the Asia-Pacific Region rare earth industry chain could potentially challenge China’s dominance in the global rare earth market. This is evident not only in the governmental collaborations among Japan, South Korea, the United States, and the European Union but also in the economic agreements at the enterprise level. Midstream and downstream rare earth enterprises prepay production investments for upstream companies through orders, thereby establishing a mechanism for cost and risk sharing across the entire overseas rare earth industry chain. This paper argues that the nation should resolutely safeguard China’s advantage in its highly concentrated rare earth production capacity while restricting the overseas transfer of domestic industries and export of production capacity. Continuously enhancing the technological and market competitiveness of rare earth products, as well as improving the application level of automation technology. These are the fundamental strategies for addressing competition within the rare earth industry chain led by the United States, and represent an effective strategy for curbing the competitive advantage of labor factors in countries like Vietnam. In the contemporary era of economic competition among global powers, China must focus on retaining its industries and production capacity domestically.

       

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