Abstract: Rare earth elements are vital strategic resources widely applied in high-tech industries. As geopolitical frictions and great-power rivalries intensify, the security of global trade in rare earth oxide products faces increasing potential threats, with supply disruptions potentially occurring at any time. The structural characteristics and evolving patterns of the trade network profoundly influence the transmission pathways and the extent of supply risk propagation. To accurately identify critical risk sources and assess their potential impact, this study employs rare earth oxide trade data from 2003 to 2023 and applies complex network theory to systematically analyze the structural evolution of the global trade network. A framework for identifying key risk nodes and an SIR-based propagation model are constructed to simulate the spread of supply risks from different sources, based on 2023 data. The results indicate that: ①the global trade volume and network density of rare earth oxides have steadily increased, with the trade network displaying distinct small-world characteristics. Trade concentration has shown a “W”-shaped trend, and the pattern has gradually shifted from China’s dominance to dependence on a few key countries or regions. China also shows high dependence on the United States for rare earth oxide imports. ②Resource-endowed risk nodes are mainly concentrated in major exporters such as China, the United States, Malaysia, and the Netherlands, while intermediary-type risk nodes are commonly seen in countries or regions playing a transshipment or mediation role in the global network, such as the Netherlands, Japan, India, and Germany. ③In terms of risk propagation, China and the United States exhibit the largest propagation scales, with the United States experiencing the highest number of propagation rounds. Notably, only supply shocks originating from the United States are capable of triggering a rare earth oxide supply crisis in China. ④Enhancing resilience can significantly mitigate the spread of supply risks. This research helps to reveal potential risk factors in rare earth trade and their scope of impact, providing theoretical support for building a safer and more stable global rare earth supply system.