Abstract: Neodymium （Nd）, as an indispensable mineral in high-performance wind turbines, plays a key role in accelerating the clean and renewable transition of energy systems. With the advancement of China’s carbon neutrality goals and the development of next-generation wind turbine technologies, the demand for neodymium in high-performance wind turbines has increased rapidly. This study aims to trace the historical material flow patterns of neodymium in China’s wind power system from 2011 to 2022, and establishes four scenarios under the dual drivers of carbon neutrality and technological progress to project neodymium demand up to 2060 while identifying potential supply constraints. The results indicate that neodymium exploitation in China’s wind power sector exhibited continuous growth from 2011 to 2022, with the import share increasing from 15% to 35%. The demand for neodymium in wind turbines surged from 1 098 tons to 2 896 tons, reflecting the substantial expansion of the wind power industry and its escalating neodymium requirements. Future demand projections reveal that, driven by both carbon neutrality objectives and technological advancements, neodymium demand will rise significantly, particularly under the carbon neutrality–technology progressive scenario （CNS-PRO）, where cumulative demand is expected to reach 440 000 tons, 2.1 times that of the business-as-usual （BAU） scenario. Primary rare earth mining alone will be insufficient to meet future demand, making the recycling of neodymium from decommissioned wind turbines a critical measure to alleviate supply-demand imbalances. To ensure sustainable and stable neodymium supply, it is imperative to establish a diversified circular supply system, implement refined full-industry-chain management strategies, and foster technological innovation to enhance resource efficiency and environmentally friendly development. Additionally, promoting the construction of a globalized neodymium supply network will be essential to address potential resource challenges in future wind power development and strengthen the resilience of the neodymium supply chain in the context of carbon neutrality.