Abstract: Lithium, as a strategic mineral resource, its price stability is directly linked to resource security and the stability of the new energy industrial chain and supply chain. Lithium resources have long been in short supply, exposing vulnerabilities in the industrial chain and amplifying sensitivity to lithium price fluctuations in China. To address the gap in lithium price research and the real challenges of resource security, this study first reviews the current pricing system and its limitations, and then applies the LightGBM and SHAP model to explore how key exogenous variables affect lithium price volatility, aiming to uncover the underlying mechanisms of lithium price dynamics. The findings indicate that: ①Lithium pricing has progressively shifted toward market-oriented and diversified mechanisms, with the pricing system becoming increasingly refined. Currently, lithium pricing system has evolved into a multi-tiered structure encompassing spot prices, contracts, indices, and financial derivatives, extending toward financialization. However, issues such as information asymmetry and insufficient market transparency persist, leading to severe price volatility. ② The price of lithium products exhibits significant path dependence, with the first-order lag showing the strongest influence on current price fluctuations. This indicates a certain degree of trend persistence in the market, as participants tend to base their expectations on recent price levels, thereby shaping their trading behavior. ③Exogenous variables including geopolitical risk, financial market volatility, climate risk, and crude oil prices all impact lithium carbonate prices, with oil prices showing the most significant effect. Empirical evidence suggests that when oil prices exceed a certain threshold, high-priced lithium carbonate becomes more volatile and directionally uncertain, while low-priced lithium tends to be supported due to cost advantages and inelastic demand. This reflects a nonlinear and structural influence of external economic factors on lithium prices. Based on these findings and China’s lithium resource context, the paper proposes policy recommendations such as strengthening domestic lithium mining exploration and strategic reserves, implementing classified controls for lithium product and technology exports and stabilizing overseas supply chains, accelerating the establishment of a unified market-driven pricing system, optimizing the risk management strategies, and tailoring contingency plans for diverse emergency disruptions.