基于深度学习的多水平开采条件下的矿井涌水量预测研究

    Research on prediction of mine water inflow under multi-level mining conditions based on deep learning

    • 摘要: 在现代化矿井中,多水平开采模式已经成为常态,但随之而来的复杂地质构造、多含水层交互等问题,使得矿井涌水量精确预测成为了行业难题。矿井涌水量的变化直接关系到井下作业人员的安全、设备运行的稳定及开采效率,若预测结果偏差过大,可能会诱发突水等重大安全事故。因此,探索高效精准的矿井涌水量预测方法,是保障矿山安全生产、实现资源可持续开发的关键。针对上述问题,本文利用深度学习算法挖掘分析采集的涌水量数据,探寻其中隐藏的复杂关系与规律。基于长短期记忆网络(LSTM)强大的时序数据处理能力,可有效捕捉涌水量随时间变化的长期依赖关系;结合卷积神经网络(CNN)在特征提取方面的优势,能够挖掘涌水量数据中的局部特征;引入注意力机制(Attention),使模型聚焦于影响涌水量变化的关键因素,进而构建了LSTM-CNN-Attention模型。本文以华北地区某矿为工程实例,系统收集了该矿2016年1月至2023年6月期间7水平~12水平的实时涌水量数据,涵盖不同开采阶段、季节变化等多维度信息。将数据按7∶2∶1的比例科学划分为训练集、验证集和测试集,采用收敛性良好的梯度下降算法对网络参数及正则化参数进行优化,确保模型的稳定性和泛化能力。为验证模型的优越性,将LSTM-CNN-Attention模型与传统的BP神经网络(BP)、自回归整合移动平均模型(ARIMA)及单一的长短期记忆网络(LSTM)模型进行对比分析。研究结果表明:LSTM-CNN-Attention模型平均绝对误差(MAE)为0.121 0、均方误差(MSE)为0.023 0、均方根误差(RMSE)为0.151 0、可决系数(R2)为0.975 0,相较于对比模型,其泛化能力与预测精度优势显著。LSTM-CNN-Attention模型创新性地融合多模态深度学习算法,为矿井涌水量预测提供了更高效的新方法。

       

      Abstract: In contemporary coal mining, multi-level mining has become a prevalent mode of operation. However, the challenges posed by complex geological structures and interactions among multiple aquifers have rendered accurate prediction of mine water inflow a significant industrial challenge. The variability in mine water inflow directly impacts the safety of underground workers, the stability of equipment operation, and mining efficiency. Substantial deviations in prediction outcomes may lead to severe safety incidents, such as water inrush events. Consequently, the exploration of efficient and precise methods for predicting mine water inflow is critical for ensuring safe production and achieving sustainable resource development. To address these issues, this paper employs deep learning algorithms to analyze collected water inflow data, uncovering intricate relationships and patterns within the dataset. Leveraging the robust time-series data processing capabilities of Long Short-Term Memory Network (LSTM), the model effectively captures long-term dependencies in water inflow variations over time. Additionally, the feature extraction advantages of Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) are utilized to mine local features from the water inflow data. Furthermore, the Attention Mechanism (Attention) is incorporated to focus the model on key factors influencing water inflow changes, leading to the construction of an LSTM-CNN-Attention model. This paper uses a specific coal mine in North China as an engineering case, systematically collects real-time water inflow data from the 7-12 levels of the mine from January 2016 to June 2023. The dataset encompasses multi-dimensional information, including different mining stages and seasonal variations. The data are scientifically partitioned into training, validation, and test sets in a ratio of 7∶2∶1. A gradient descent algorithm with excellent convergence properties is employed to optimize network parameters and regularization terms, ensuring the model’s stability and generalization capability. To validate the model’s superiority, it is compared and analyzed against traditional BP neural network, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and single Long Short-Term Memory Network (LSTM) models. The research results indicate that the LSTM-CNN-Attention model has a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.121 0, a mean square error (MSE) of 0.023 0, a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.151 0, and a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.975 0. Compared to benchmark models, it demonstrates superior generalization ability and prediction accuracy. By innovatively integrating multimodal deep learning algorithms, the LSTM-CNN-Attention model provides an advanced and efficient approach for prediction of mine water inflow.

       

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