基于空间聚类与GAMM模型的典型资源型城市滑坡易发性评估:以冷水江市为例

    Assessment of landslide susceptibility in a typical resource-based city based on spatial clustering and GAMM model: a case study of Lengshuijiang City

    • 摘要: 本文针对现有滑坡易发性评估方法在处理空间异质性和非线性关系方面的局限性,以湖南省典型资源型城市冷水江市为研究对象,旨在构建一个融合空间异质性特征的滑坡易发性评估体系。本文通过实地调查与历史记录收集,获取了2015年5月至2024年7月期间325起滑坡事件数据,并建立了包含12个因子的滑坡易发性评价指标体系,涵盖地形、植被覆盖、距离类及岩性等多维变量。在数据预处理阶段,进行了网格划分、数据投影转换、缺失值填补和标准化等操作。研究采用空间约束多元聚类(SCMC)方法分析滑坡事件的空间分布规律,并运用广义加性混合模型(GAMM)结合“解释偏差”评估变量重要性。同时,利用GIS技术和自然断点法实现了滑坡易发性的可视化与分级。研究结果表明,考虑空间随机效应的GAMM模型在AICBIC、伪R2和对数似然等指标上均优于未考虑空间随机效应的模型,在识别高风险区域滑坡方面表现更为出色。研究发现,剖面曲率、距道路距离、地形湿度指数和距采矿区距离等变量在滑坡易发性评估中具有极高的重要性。此外,研究结果显示冷水江市滑坡易发区域呈现显著的聚集性,考虑空间效应的模型能更准确地反映这一规律,有效避免了低风险区域的误判。本研究构建的评估体系对冷水江市及类似资源型城市的滑坡灾害防治具有重要的应用价值。

       

      Abstract: This paper aims to construct a landslide susceptibility assessment system that integrates spatial heterogeneity characteristics, focusing on Lengshuijiang City, a typical resource-based city in Hunan Province, in response to the limitations of existing landslide susceptibility assessment methods in dealing with spatial heterogeneity and nonlinear relationships. Through field investigations and historical records, this paper obtains data on 325 landslide events from May 2015 to July 2024, and establishes a landslide susceptibility evaluation index system consisting of 12 factors, covering multi-dimensional variables such as terrain, vegetation coverage, distance-related factors, and lithology. In the data preprocessing stage, operations such as grid division, data projection transformation, missing value imputation, and standardization are carried out. The study adopts the Spatial Constrained Multivariate Clustering (SCMC) method to analyze the spatial distribution patterns of landslide events, and uses the Generalized Additive Mixed Model (GAMM) combined with “deviance explained” to evaluate the importance of variables. Meanwhile, GIS technology and the natural breaks method are utilized to achieve the visualization and classification of landslide susceptibility. The results show that the GAMM model considering spatial random effects outperforms the model without considering spatial random effects in terms of indicators such as AIC, BIC, pseudo R2, and log-likelihood, and performs more excellently in identifying landslides in high-risk areas. The study reveals that variables such as profile curvature, distance to roads, terrain wetness index, and distance to mining areas are of extremely high importance in the assessment of landslide susceptibility. In addition, the research results indicate that the landslide-prone areas in Lengshuijiang City exhibit significant clustering, and the model considering spatial effects can more accurately reflect this pattern, effectively avoiding misjudgments in low-risk areas. The assessment system constructed in this study has important application value for the prevention and control of landslide disasters in Lengshuijiang City and similar resource-based cities.

       

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