Abstract:
Rare earth elements are indispensable strategic minerals in modern industry, cutting-edge technologies, and national defense sectors. A comprehensive assessment of the spatiotemporal dynamics and vulnerabilities of the global rare earth industrial chain is essential for understanding the development trends in rare earth trade and safeguarding the security of its supply chains. From the perspective of trade networks, this paper selects four representative categories of rare earth products—rare earth metals, rare earth compounds, rare earth ferroalloys, and rare earth permanent magnets—to construct a global trade network from 2000 to 2022. Complex network analysis methodologies are utilized to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns and topological evolution of the global rare earth trade network. Furthermore, it employs deliberate attack simulation to analyze the vulnerability characteristics of the global supply chain. The results reveal an overall upward trend in trade volumes across all rare earth product categories, despite fluctuations. Trade scales vary significantly among product types, with notable increases in network density, complexity, and spatial clustering. Specifically, the trade network of rare earth metals has evolved from a “dual-core” to a “multi-core” collaborative structure; the rare earth compound network experiences a contraction–expansion cycle, with China playing a decisive role in its evolution; and the networks for rare earth ferroalloys and permanent magnets have gradually developed a radial spatial pattern centered on China. Overall, the global rare earth trade network has increasingly manifested a tripartite structure dominated by China, Japan, and the United States. Analysis through simulation of deliberate attacks indicates a generally high degree of vulnerability in the global trade network, with limited resilience to targeted disruptions. A few core nodes—such as China, the United States, and Germany—have played consistently pivotal roles, while nodes like India, South Africa, and Thailand have shown a rising influence on network connectivity. Based on the research findings, the paper proposes policy recommendations to optimize China’s rare earth foreign trade structure, enhance the international competitiveness of China’s rare earth industry, and safeguard the security of China’s rare earth supply chain.