全球稀土供应链时空演化及其脆弱性分析:基于贸易网络视角

    Spatiotemporal evolution and vulnerability analysis of the global rare earth supply chain: a trade network perspective

    • 摘要: 稀土是现代工业、尖端科技及国防军工等战略性领域中不可或缺的关键矿产。评估全球稀土产业链时空动态及脆弱性,对全面认知稀土贸易发展态势、维护稀土产品供应链安全具有重要意义。基于贸易网络视角,本文选取稀土产业链中的稀土金属、稀土化合物、稀土铁合金和稀土永磁体四类典型商品,构建2000—2022年全球稀土产品贸易网络,运用复杂网络分析方法,深入剖析全球稀土贸易网络时空格局和拓扑演化,并采用蓄意攻击模拟方法分析全球稀土供应链网络脆弱性特征。研究发现:全球各类稀土产品贸易规模总体在波动中上升,不同产品的贸易规模差距悬殊,各类稀土产品贸易网络的稠密化、复杂化和空间集聚态势显著。其中,稀土金属贸易网络由“双核”驱动向“多核”联动格局转变;稀土化合物贸易网络经历“收缩-扩张”过程,中国对贸易网络格局演变影响显著;稀土铁合金和稀土永磁体贸易网络逐渐形成以中国为核心的放射状空间格局。总体上,全球稀土贸易网络随时间逐渐形成中国、日本、美国“三足鼎立”的组织结构。通过模拟攻击分析发现,全球稀土贸易网络脆弱性程度整体较高,应对蓄意攻击的抵御能力有限。中国、美国、德国等少数核心节点在贸易网络中长期发挥关键性作用,印度、南非、泰国等节点对贸易网络连通性的影响力逐步攀升。基于研究结果,本文提出优化我国稀土对外贸易格局、提升我国稀土产业国际竞争力及维护我国稀土供应链安全的政策建议。

       

      Abstract: Rare earth elements are indispensable strategic minerals in modern industry, cutting-edge technologies, and national defense sectors. A comprehensive assessment of the spatiotemporal dynamics and vulnerabilities of the global rare earth industrial chain is essential for understanding the development trends in rare earth trade and safeguarding the security of its supply chains. From the perspective of trade networks, this paper selects four representative categories of rare earth products—rare earth metals, rare earth compounds, rare earth ferroalloys, and rare earth permanent magnets—to construct a global trade network from 2000 to 2022. Complex network analysis methodologies are utilized to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns and topological evolution of the global rare earth trade network. Furthermore, it employs deliberate attack simulation to analyze the vulnerability characteristics of the global supply chain. The results reveal an overall upward trend in trade volumes across all rare earth product categories, despite fluctuations. Trade scales vary significantly among product types, with notable increases in network density, complexity, and spatial clustering. Specifically, the trade network of rare earth metals has evolved from a “dual-core” to a “multi-core” collaborative structure; the rare earth compound network experiences a contraction–expansion cycle, with China playing a decisive role in its evolution; and the networks for rare earth ferroalloys and permanent magnets have gradually developed a radial spatial pattern centered on China. Overall, the global rare earth trade network has increasingly manifested a tripartite structure dominated by China, Japan, and the United States. Analysis through simulation of deliberate attacks indicates a generally high degree of vulnerability in the global trade network, with limited resilience to targeted disruptions. A few core nodes—such as China, the United States, and Germany—have played consistently pivotal roles, while nodes like India, South Africa, and Thailand have shown a rising influence on network connectivity. Based on the research findings, the paper proposes policy recommendations to optimize China’s rare earth foreign trade structure, enhance the international competitiveness of China’s rare earth industry, and safeguard the security of China’s rare earth supply chain.

       

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