Abstract: Nickel resources, as a critical material widely applied in production, daily life, and national defense and military industries, play a pivotal role in the current background of geopolitical conflicts and power struggles. Therefore, studying the supply security of nickel resource is of great significance for promoting energy transition and the development of strategic emerging industries in China. Current research on resource supply security lacks comprehensive consideration of resource itself factors and socioeconomic factors. This paper proposes a comprehensive mineral resource supply and demand prediction model integrating demand, production, import-export, and recycling. From the perspective of scenario analysis, it considers the influencing factors of reserves, recycling rates, trade conditions and their combinations to carry out comprehensive predictive analysis on nickel resources supply security issues in China. The research results indicate that even under the high recycling rate scenario, external dependence on nickel resources will remain at around 70% before 2030, and the supply potential of resource recycling can only be released around 2040 to enhance long-term supply capacity. Under various prediction scenarios, imported nickel accounts for approximately 60% of resource supply, while recycled nickel accounts for about 35%. The two will jointly constitute the main factors affecting the security of nickel resource supply in China. In the background of limited nickel resources in China, the use of various resource development and utilization means to play a synergistic effect will play an important role in improving the supply security of nickel resource in China. Policy recommendations are as follows: the government should encourage enterprises to strengthen resource recycling and utilization and adopt targeted recycling strategies based on the different uses of nickel resources. It should expand international cooperation projects in mineral resources, promote the diversification of nickel resource imports, and make advance arrangements to guard against trade disruptions. Compared with increasing exploration investment, the government should place greater emphasis on supporting technological innovation, stimulating social innovation vitality to improve resource utilization efficiency.