新形势下的全球稀土产业链发展现状及挑战

    Development status and challenges of the global rare earth industry chain under the new situation

    • 摘要: 稀土作为高端制造与新能源产业的关键支撑材料,其产业链重构已成为大国博弈核心议题。本文针对2025年中美关税政策与中国稀土出口管制引发的全球供应链变革,系统梳理全球稀土资源勘查、开发、生产及贸易全链条现状,识别中国稀土产业面临的挑战并提供战略参考。研究结果显示,中国已探明稀土储量占全球的48.9%,但美西方掌控巴西、格陵兰岛等地的优质资源,形成“储量规模”与“资源控制权”错位;2024年,中国稀土矿产量约占全球的70%,美国、缅甸、澳大利亚分列其后,全球稀土勘查投入1.50亿美元,澳大利亚与非洲占比达66.1%;贸易方面,2024年,中国稀土产品进口同比下降26.8%、出口同比下降27.6%,永磁材料出口逆势增长10.6%,主要流向德国、美国、韩国等国家;全球已形成以中国为核心的完整供应链与美西方主导的区域供应链双轨格局。分析认为,中国产业面临三大核心挑战:资源控制权随全球优质资源开发弱化,钕、镝等关键元素供需矛盾将进一步激化,美西方通过资源外交、产能扩张与技术封锁加速产业链自主化。未来全球稀土资源争夺将向勘查与采矿权延伸,供需结构性矛盾、供应链区域化多元化趋势凸显,技术创新与国际合作成为破解产业困境的关键,中国需通过强化资源管控、突破核心技术、深化国际协作等方式持续巩固全球稀土供应链主导地位,应对复杂国际环境下的多重挑战。

       

      Abstract: As a critical supporting material for high-end manufacturing and new energy industries, the restructuring of the rare earth industry chain has emerged as a core issue in great-power rivalry. This paper seeks to examine the global supply chain restructuring triggered by China-US tariff policies and China’s rare earth export controls in 2025, collates the status quo of the entire global rare earth chain—encompassing resource exploration, development, production, and trade—identifies the challenges confronting China’s rare earth industry, and offers strategic insights. The findings reveal that China’s proven rare earth reserves account for 48.9% of the global total, yet Western nations (the United States and Europe) dominate access to high-quality resources in Brazil, Greenland, and other regions, resulting in a disjuncture between “reserve scale” and “resource control”. In 2024, China contributed 70% of the world’s rare earth ore production, followed by the United States, Myanmar, and Australia. Global investment in rare earth exploration amounted to 150 million US dollars, with Australia and Africa collectively accounting for 66.1%. In terms of trade, China’s imports of rare earth products declined by 26.8% year-on-year in 2024, while its exports fell by 27.6% year-on-year, whereas exports of permanent magnet materials rose by 10.6% against the broader downward trend, primarily destined for Germany, the United States, South Korea, and other nations. Globally, a dual-track supply chain pattern has taken shape: a comprehensive supply chain centered on China and a regional supply chain led by Western nations. The analysis demonstrates that China’s rare earth industry faces three core challenges: the erosion of resource control capacity amid the development of global high-quality resources, the deepening of supply-demand imbalances for critical elements including neodymium and dysprosium, and Western nations advancing the autonomy of their rare earth industry chains via resource diplomacy, capacity expansion, and technological blockades. Looking ahead, global competition for rare earth resources will extend to exploration and mining rights, with structural supply-demand imbalances and the growing prominence of supply chain regionalization and diversification. Technological innovation and international cooperation are pivotal to resolving industrial challenges. China must sustain and consolidate its leading position in the global rare earth supply chain by enhancing resource governance, advancing core technological breakthroughs, and deepening international cooperation, thereby addressing the multiple challenges posed by the complex international landscape.

       

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