Abstract:
As a critical supporting material for high-end manufacturing and new energy industries, the restructuring of the rare earth industry chain has emerged as a core issue in great-power rivalry. This paper seeks to examine the global supply chain restructuring triggered by China-US tariff policies and China’s rare earth export controls in 2025, collates the status quo of the entire global rare earth chain—encompassing resource exploration, development, production, and trade—identifies the challenges confronting China’s rare earth industry, and offers strategic insights. The findings reveal that China’s proven rare earth reserves account for 48.9% of the global total, yet Western nations (the United States and Europe) dominate access to high-quality resources in Brazil, Greenland, and other regions, resulting in a disjuncture between “reserve scale” and “resource control”. In 2024, China contributed 70% of the world’s rare earth ore production, followed by the United States, Myanmar, and Australia. Global investment in rare earth exploration amounted to 150 million US dollars, with Australia and Africa collectively accounting for 66.1%. In terms of trade, China’s imports of rare earth products declined by 26.8% year-on-year in 2024, while its exports fell by 27.6% year-on-year, whereas exports of permanent magnet materials rose by 10.6% against the broader downward trend, primarily destined for Germany, the United States, South Korea, and other nations. Globally, a dual-track supply chain pattern has taken shape: a comprehensive supply chain centered on China and a regional supply chain led by Western nations. The analysis demonstrates that China’s rare earth industry faces three core challenges: the erosion of resource control capacity amid the development of global high-quality resources, the deepening of supply-demand imbalances for critical elements including neodymium and dysprosium, and Western nations advancing the autonomy of their rare earth industry chains via resource diplomacy, capacity expansion, and technological blockades. Looking ahead, global competition for rare earth resources will extend to exploration and mining rights, with structural supply-demand imbalances and the growing prominence of supply chain regionalization and diversification. Technological innovation and international cooperation are pivotal to resolving industrial challenges. China must sustain and consolidate its leading position in the global rare earth supply chain by enhancing resource governance, advancing core technological breakthroughs, and deepening international cooperation, thereby addressing the multiple challenges posed by the complex international landscape.