苏鲁沿海地区离岸碳封存源汇匹配分析:以南黄海盆地为例

    Analysis on source-sink matching for offshore carbon storage in coastal areas of Jiangsu and Shandong Provinces: a case study of the South Yellow Sea Basin

    • 摘要: 在“双碳”目标驱动下,碳捕集、利用与封存(CCUS)技术成为碳减排关键手段。我国沿海省市工业聚集、二氧化碳排放量巨大,加之海域碳封存空间广阔、安全性高,因此,离岸碳封存模式日渐成为沿海地区实现“双碳”目标的重要选择。而源汇匹配作为离岸碳封存的核心环节,其优化程度直接决定减排效率与经济成本,对实现经济、高效减排降碳具有重要意义。本文聚焦苏鲁沿海地区与南黄海盆地的离岸碳封存源汇匹配问题,基于中国高空间分辨率排放网格数据库(CHRED)选取苏鲁沿海地区钢铁、化工、水泥、火电等行业碳排放数据,引入最小生成树算法构建了离岸碳封存源汇匹配模型,开展了苏鲁沿海地区离岸碳封存源汇匹配研究,求解了源汇匹配系统总成本,给出了最优管道运输路径,形成最优源汇匹配模式。研究认为,南黄海盆地烟台坳陷和青岛坳陷碳封存有利区与苏鲁沿海地区碳排放源呈现出良好的匹配特性,可满足未来30 年碳减排需求,为离岸碳封存提供了地质基础;提出的源汇匹配模式单位运输成本0.015 6 美元/t/km,随着技术革新、碳价上涨等影响,提出的源汇匹配模式下的离岸碳封存发展路径经济效益将更加乐观。本研究为沿海省市构建“双碳”目标下的陆海统筹减排系统提供了科学决策依据,有助于推动“岸碳入海”技术路径的规模化应用。

       

      Abstract: Driven by the “dual-carbon” goals, carbon capture, utilization, and storage(CCUS) technology has been recognized as a key means for carbon emission reduction. Coastal provinces and cities in China are characterized by concentrated industries and huge carbon dioxide emissions. Additionally, offshore areas offer vast space and high safety for carbon storage. Therefore, the offshore carbon storage model has gradually emerged as an important option for coastal regions to achieve the “dual-carbon” goals. As a core component of offshore carbon storage, the optimization of source-sink matching directly determines emission reduction efficiency and economic costs, and is of great significance for achieving economical and efficient emission reduction. This study focuses on the issue of offshore carbon storage source-sink matching between the coastal areas of Jiangsu and Shandong Provinces and the South Yellow Sea Basin. Based on the China high-resolution emission grid database(CHRED), carbon emission data from industries such as iron and steel, chemical, cement, and thermal power in the coastal areas of Jiangsu and Shandong Provinces are selected. The minimum spanning tree algorithm is introduced, and an offshore carbon storage source-sink matching model is constructed. A study on offshore carbon storage source-sink matching in the coastal areas of Jiangsu and Shandong Provinces is conducted, the total cost of the source-sink matching system is calculated, the optimal pipeline transportation routes are proposed, and the optimal source-sink matching pattern is developed. The study shows that the favorable carbon storage zones in the Yantai Depression and Qingdao Depression of the South Yellow Sea Basin exhibit good matching characteristics with the carbon emission sources in the coastal areas of Jiangsu and Shandong Provinces, which can meet the demand for carbon emission reduction in the next 30 years and provide a geological basis for offshore carbon storage. The unit transportation cost of the proposed source-sink matching pattern is 0.015 6 USD/t/km. With the impact of technological innovation and rising carbon prices, the economic benefits of the offshore carbon storage development path under the proposed source-sink matching pattern will be more optimistic. This study provides a scientific decision-making basis for coastal provinces and cities to build a land-sea integrated emission reduction system under the “dual-carbon” goals, and helps promote the large-scale application of the technical pathway of “onshore carbon to offshore storage”.

       

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