基于深度学习的煤矿瓦斯浓度实时预测模型构建与验证

    Construction and verification of real-time prediction model for coal mine gas concentration based on deep learning

    • 摘要: 我国煤炭行业因瓦斯事故频发面临严峻安全挑战,传统预测方法如自回归(AR)模型、ARIMA模型等,由于存在预测精度低、难以处理非线性关系等问题,难以满足精准预警需求。本研究基于深度学习技术,构建了融合注意力机制与图卷积的煤矿瓦斯浓度实时预测模型。通过处理国能神东煤矿监测数据,采用数据预处理、特征选择与标准化等手段,结合时空编码器-解码器架构,实现了对瓦斯浓度的高效预测。模型以均方误差(MSE)为损失函数,Adam优化器进行训练,并通过MAE、MAPE、RMSE等指标验证其性能,研究结果表明,该模型在不同预测窗口下均优于基准模型,且具备良好的实时性能与可靠性,为煤矿瓦斯浓度预测预警提供了新方法。

       

      Abstract: China’s coal industry is facing severe safety challenges due to the frequent occurrence of gas accidents. Traditional prediction methods such as autoregressive (AR) models and ARIMA models are difficult to meet the requirements of precise early warning due to problems such as low prediction accuracy and difficulty in handling nonlinear relationships. Based on deep learning technology, this study constructs a real-time prediction model for coal mine gas concentration that integrates the attention mechanism and graph convolution. By processing the monitoring data of Shendong Coal Mine of CHN Energy, adopting means such as data preprocessing, feature selection and standardization, combined with the spatio-temporal encoder-decoder architecture, efficient prediction of gas concentration has been achieved. The model takes the mean square error (MSE) as the loss function, is trained with the Adam optimizer, and its performance is verified through indicators such as MAE, MAPE, and RMSE. The results show that this model outperforms the benchmark model under different prediction Windows and has good real-time performance and reliability, providing a new method for the prediction and early warning of coal mine gas concentration.

       

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