基于SWOT模型的美国CCS产业发展经验及启示

    Experience and enlightenment of U.S. CCS industry development based on the SWOT model

    • 摘要: CO2捕集与封存(CCS)技术已成为应对气候变化和保障能源安全的关键途径,美国十分重视CCS技术,经过多年积累与发展,其政策支持、资金投入、技术研发和项目部署均处于全球领先地位。中国与美国同为碳排放大国,并且在未来很长一段时期内化石能源仍将占据主导地位;同时,两国都具有较为完备的基础设施和万亿吨级的地质封存资源,在CCS发展路径方面具有一定相似性。系统总结和借鉴美国的经验,有助于推动我国CCS产业科学发展。本文运用SWOT模型对美国CCS产业的内部优势与劣势和外部机遇与挑战进行系统性分析,认为美国CCS产业具有地质封存容量大、产学研深度融合和集群化发展的内部优势,以及投资成本高昂、经济收益低且社会效益外溢和环境风险高的内部劣势,其发展具备政策支持、财政补贴和税收激励的外部机遇,同时面临政策稳定性差、监管体系不完善和技术替代风险等外部挑战。通过SWOT策略组合分析,总结美国CCS产业发展的优势-机遇组合策略为深化市场衔接,劣势-机遇组合策略为加快CCS枢纽建设,优势-挑战组合策略为加强CCS+融合发展,劣势-挑战组合策略为持续完善管理制度和监督体系。针对我国CCS产业发展阶段,提出完善综合性政策支撑体系、加强技术创新体系建设和健全市场激励机制建议。

       

      Abstract: Carbon capture and storage(CCS) technology has become a key approach to addressing climate change and ensuring energy security. The United States attaches great importance to CCS technology. Its support policy, financial investment, technological R&D, and project deployment have taken the lead globally. As major carbon emitters where fossil fuels will dominate for the foreseeable future, both China and the U.S. share similarities in CCS development pathways due to their robust infrastructure and trillion-ton-scale geological storage resources. Systematically summarizing U.S. experience can advance Chinese CCS industry. This paper uses the SWOT model to systematically analyze the internal strengths and weaknesses, as well as external opportunities and threats of the CCS industry in the U.S. It is argued that the U.S. CCS industry has internal strengths such as large geological storage capacity, deep integration of industry-university-research, and clustered development, while facing internal weaknesses including high investment costs, low economic returns, spillover of social benefits, and high environmental risks. In terms of external factors, it benefits from policy support, fiscal subsidies, and tax incentives, but is confronted with threats such as poor policy stability, imperfect regulatory systems, and technological substitution risks. Through SWOT strategic portfolio analysis, this paper explores the development paths of the U.S. CCS industry, including deepening market integration(SO), accelerating CCS hubs(WO), enhancing CCS+ integration(ST), and improving management systems(WT). For Chinese CCS industry development stage, recommendations include establishing comprehensive policy frameworks, strengthening technological innovation systems, and refining market incentive mechanisms.

       

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