基于逻辑回归和卷积神经网络耦合模型的地质灾害易发性评价研究

    Research on geological hazard susceptibility evaluation based on LR-CNN coupling model

    • 摘要: 精确的地质灾害易发性区划是防灾减灾和国土空间规划的重点和前提。本文以乐都区为研究区,采用“频率比”法判断九类影响因子各分级区间对地质灾害发育的敏感性,使用“方差膨胀因子法”判断因子间相关性并确定各因子权重,搭建LR模型和CNN模型,构建LR-CNN耦合模型的地质灾害易发性评价体系,完成乐都区地质灾害易发性评价,并进行模型精度比较。研究结果显示:高程对地质灾害作用最明显,其他依次为工程岩组、坡度、河流、道路、TWI、断层、坡向、地形起伏度;LR-CNN耦合模型的五项评价指标均优于单一模型的评价结果,其AUC值较LR模型和CNN模型分别提高0.25和0.12;区内的极高易发区主要分布在高程为1 788~2 848 m的松散岩和软弱岩区,其具有地形起伏度小、坡度缓、TWI值低且靠近河流和道路区域等特点。

       

      Abstract: Accurate zoning of geological hazard susceptibility is a key and prerequisite for hazard prevention and reduction, as well as national spatial planning. This paper takes Ledu District as the research area, uses the “frequency ratio method” to determine the sensitivity of geological hazards in each grading interval of 9 influencing factors, uses the “variance inflation factor method” to determine the correlation of factors, establishes logistic regression and convolutional neural network models, and constructs a geological hazard susceptibility evaluation system that couples logistic regression and convolutional neural network models. The geological hazard susceptibility evaluation of Ledu District is completed and the model accuracy is compared. The results show that elevation has the most significant effect on geological hazards, followed by engineering rock formations, slopes, rivers, roads, TWI, faults, slope orientation, terrain undulation; the evaluation index and AUC value of LR-CNN coupling model are better than that of single model, and its AUC value is 0.25 and 0.12 higher than that of LR model and CNN model respectively; the highly susceptible areas are mainly distributed in loose and weak rock areas with elevations of 1 788-2 848 m, characterized by gentle slopes, low TWI values, small terrain undulations, and proximity to rivers and roads.

       

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