Abstract:
Due to China’s long-term high dependence on imported oil and gas, over 70% of oil and 40% of natural gas consumption rely on imports, coupled with the volatile international oil and gas market that affected by the intertwined changes in international political and trade situations, it is of great significance to timely track and analyze the domestic and international oil and gas resource situation for promoting oil and gas exploration and development, and for ensuring national energy security. Based on the tracking of major international events and hotspots in the energy sector, this paper integrates research reports released by international institutions such as IMF, IEA, EIA and OPEC, and combines long-term tracking research on the domestic oil and gas exploration and development situation to analyze the domestic and international oil and gas resource situation in the first half of 2025. The uncertainties in the geopolitical environment and trade policies have intensified expectations of a global economic slowdown. Coupled with the gradual cancellation of oil production cuts by OPEC+, the oil output of non-OPEC countries remains at a high level. As a result, the global oil supply and demand situation tends to be loose, and prices have fluctuated and declined widely. The natural gas market is affected by extremely cold climate, inventory changes, tariff policies, etc., and its prices show regional differentiation and fluctuation characteristics, with an overall pattern of “rising first and then falling”. China’s economy remains stable and improving. Oil consumption has increased, while natural gas consumption has declined. Significant discoveries and progress are made in oil and gas exploration in major sedimentary basins, and oil and gas production has been steadily increasing. International oil prices will remain in a wide range of fluctuations under the dual influence of changes in the geopolitical situation and the production policies of OPEC+. The loose supply and demand situation will limit the upward fluctuation space. Natural gas prices will fluctuate and decline slowly, but still remain at a high level compared with 2024. As the 14th Five-Year Plan comes to an end, oil and gas production in China will continue to grow, and the legislative work in the field of natural resources will be advanced in an orderly manner, which will provide a strong guarantee for national energy security.