2025年上半年国内外油气资源形势分析及展望

    Analysis of oil and gas resource situation at home and abroad in the first half of 2025 and prospects

    • 摘要: 我国油气对外依存度长期居高不下,超七成石油、四成天然气消费依赖进口,当前国际政治、贸易局势变乱交织,国际油气市场呈现震荡态势,及时跟踪分析国内外油气资源形势,对于促进油气勘探开发、保障国家能源安全意义重大。在国际重大事件和能源领域热点追踪基础上,综合国际货币基金组织、国际能源署、美国能源信息署、欧佩克等国际能源机构发布的研究报告,结合对国内油气勘探开发形势的长期跟踪研究,分析了2025年上半年国内外油气资源形势。地缘环境、贸易政策的不确定性,导致全球经济放缓预期加剧,加之“欧佩克+”逐步取消产油减产措施,非欧佩克国家石油产量维持高位,全球石油供需趋向宽松,价格宽幅震荡下行。天然气市场受极寒气候、库存变化、关税政策等影响,价格呈现区域分化与波动特征,整体“先扬后抑”。我国经济稳中向好,消费呈现“油增气降”态势,油气找矿在主要含油气盆地取得重大发现与进展,油气产量稳步增长。预计2025年下半年,国际石油价格受地缘局势变化和“欧佩克+”产量政策的双重影响将保持宽幅震荡,供需宽松局面将限制向上震荡空间并下行,天然气价格将波动缓慢下行,但较2024年仍保持高位。在“十四五”规划收官之际,国内油气产量保持增长,自然资源领域立法工作有序推进,将为国家能源安全提供有力保障。

       

      Abstract: Due to China’s long-term high dependence on imported oil and gas, over 70% of oil and 40% of natural gas consumption rely on imports, coupled with the volatile international oil and gas market that affected by the intertwined changes in international political and trade situations, it is of great significance to timely track and analyze the domestic and international oil and gas resource situation for promoting oil and gas exploration and development, and for ensuring national energy security. Based on the tracking of major international events and hotspots in the energy sector, this paper integrates research reports released by international institutions such as IMF, IEA, EIA and OPEC, and combines long-term tracking research on the domestic oil and gas exploration and development situation to analyze the domestic and international oil and gas resource situation in the first half of 2025. The uncertainties in the geopolitical environment and trade policies have intensified expectations of a global economic slowdown. Coupled with the gradual cancellation of oil production cuts by OPEC+, the oil output of non-OPEC countries remains at a high level. As a result, the global oil supply and demand situation tends to be loose, and prices have fluctuated and declined widely. The natural gas market is affected by extremely cold climate, inventory changes, tariff policies, etc., and its prices show regional differentiation and fluctuation characteristics, with an overall pattern of “rising first and then falling”. China’s economy remains stable and improving. Oil consumption has increased, while natural gas consumption has declined. Significant discoveries and progress are made in oil and gas exploration in major sedimentary basins, and oil and gas production has been steadily increasing. International oil prices will remain in a wide range of fluctuations under the dual influence of changes in the geopolitical situation and the production policies of OPEC+. The loose supply and demand situation will limit the upward fluctuation space. Natural gas prices will fluctuate and decline slowly, but still remain at a high level compared with 2024. As the 14th Five-Year Plan comes to an end, oil and gas production in China will continue to grow, and the legislative work in the field of natural resources will be advanced in an orderly manner, which will provide a strong guarantee for national energy security.

       

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