中国煤炭资源可持续保障能力研究:基于赋存格局重构与开发路径优化

    Sustainable security capacity of China’s coal resources: restructuring occurrence patterns and optimizing development pathways

    • 摘要: 我国煤炭资源禀赋呈现“西多东少、北富南贫”的宏观格局,晋陕蒙宁核心区占全国储量40%,新疆资源量占总量42%。基于三级潜力评价模型,2030年1 000 m以浅可动用资源量为16 824万亿t,但资源转化率仅11%,且勘查程度严重不足,全国推断资源量占比59%,生产矿井中52%依赖详查以下资源量开采。按39%回采率测算,全国可采储量静态保障年限仅20 a(山西14 a、新疆26 a),而矿井平均回采率(25%~40%)较发达国家(60%~70%)存在显著代差。为破解此困局,提出地质-技术-政策协同路径:晋陕蒙新推行“地震-钻探-测井”三位一体勘探,缩短勘查周期3~5 a;东部深部采用高精度三维地震与井下槽波CT技术突破灰岩水威胁区;建立回采率-资源税挂钩机制。研究成果为煤炭资源可持续开发提供科学支撑。

       

      Abstract: China’s coal resources exhibit a “west-rich, east-poor” distribution pattern, with the Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia-Ningxia region holding 40% of national reserves and Xinjiang contributing 42% of resources. A three-tier potential assessment model indicates 16 824 billion tons of recoverable resources above 1 000 m depth by 2030. However, critical challenges persist: only 11% of resources are converted to reserves, 59% remain inferred category, and 52% of producing mines operate with pre-exploration level data. At a 39% recovery rate, the static reserve lifespan is merely 20 years nationally(14 a in Shanxi, 26 a in Xinjiang), while China’s average recovery rate(25%-40%) lags 20+ percentage points behind developed nations(60%-70%). To address these, integrated solutions are proposed: implementing trinity exploration(seismic-drilling-logging) in key basins to shorten appraisal cycles by 3-5 years; deploying high-resolution 3D seismic and underground channel wave CT for deep mining in Ordovician water-threatened zones; establishing recovery rate-tax linkage. This framework provides scientific basis for sustainable coal development.

       

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