2000—2021年中国镍动态物质流分析

    Dynamic material flow analysis of nickel in China from 2000 to 2021

    • 摘要: 镍(Ni)是全球能源绿色低碳转型过程中所需的关键金属元素,广泛应用于不锈钢制造和电池生产等领域。作为全球最大的镍资源消费国,中国面临着巨大的供需缺口及供应链稳定性挑战,因此,开展镍物质流分析,定量刻画镍在全产业链的物质流动过程,厘定潜在风险点已迫在眉睫。本文基于动态物质流分析实现了镍全生命周期代谢的可视化,研究结果表明:流量视角下,中国一次镍供应高度依赖进口,中下游冶炼加工产品的消费需求迅速增长,供需结构性矛盾突出;整体贸易规模稳步增长,中国日益成为一个镍矿采选、冶炼精炼产品进口国和初级镍产品、终端镍产品出口国;镍的回收利用率处于较低水平。存量视角下,冶炼精炼阶段精镍的总存量表现为“先增后减”最后波动下降的趋势,终端消费阶段,累计在用存量与净增在用存量最多的都是金属产品。

       

      Abstract: Nickel (Ni) is a critical metallic element supporting the global transition to green and low-carbon energy, with wide applications in stainless steel, battery production and so on. As the world’s largest consumer of nickel resources, China faces a substantial supply-demand gap and challenges related to supply chain stability. Therefore, it has become imperative to conduct nickel material flow analysis, quantitatively depict the material flow process across the entire industrial chain, and identify potential risk points. This study implements the visualization of nickel’s life cycle metabolism based on dynamic material flow model. The findings are as follows: from the perspective of flow, China’s primary nickel supply relies heavily on imports, demand for midstream and downstream smelting and fabrication products is expanding rapidly, resulting in striking supply-demand structural imbalances. The overall trade scale has expanded steadily, China is increasingly evolving into an importer of nickel ore mining & milling products and smelting & refining products, while acting as an exporter of primary nickel products and end-use nickel products. The recycling rate of nickel remains low. From the perspective of stock, the total stock of refined nickel in the smelting & refining stage follows a trajectory of initial growth, subsequent decline, and final fluctuating decrease. In the end-use stage, metal products dominate both the cumulative in-use stock and the net increase in in-use stock.

       

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