产业链视角下的中国矿产资源价格联动研究

    Research on the price linkage of China’s mineral resources from the perspective of the industrial chain

    • 摘要: 矿产资源是发展之基、生产之要,其在产业链中具有重要地位。矿产资源型产业不仅对矿产品和基础原材料起保障作用,还对国民经济发展有着重要的支撑作用。其中,矿产资源价格的波动会通过产业链上下游直接影响中国其他产业部门。研究中国矿产资源价格波动对产业链其他行业的影响,对于维持产业链的安全稳定、构建价格波动监测、预警平台具有重要作用。本文基于投入产出价格模型分别构建了单种价格联动影响模型和多种价格联动影响模型,研究了中国2001—2020年单种矿产资源、多种矿产资源价格波动对其他产业价格影响的演变规律。研究结论表明:①矿产资源价格波动对第二产业和第三产业的影响较大,第一产业受到的影响最小。不同矿产资源品种价格波动对其他产业价格的影响程度也是不同的。受采矿和采石(能源产品生产)价格波动影响最大的是焦炭和精炼石油产品;受采矿和采石(非能源产品生产)价格波动影响最大的是基础金属;受采矿支持服务价格波动影响最大的是采矿和采石(能源产品生产);受焦炭和精炼石油产品价格波动影响最大的是水上运输;受其他非金属矿物制品价格波动影响最大的是建筑业;受基础金属价格波动影响最大的是金属制品。②采矿和采石(能源产品生产)价格对其他产业价格的影响是最大的,其次是基础金属价格,采矿支持服务价格对其他产业价格的影响是最低的。③产业价格波动与产业链上下游间的供需关联结构紧密联系,主要取决于其在产业链中的位置和产品属性。本文的研究结果为构建矿产资源价格的动态监测和预警体系,维持中国产业链的安全和稳定具有参考价值。

       

      Abstract: Mineral resources are the foundation of development and the key to production, and their important position in the industrial chain is self-evident. The mineral resource-based industry not only ensures the supply of mineral products and basic raw materials but also plays a crucial supporting role in the development of the national economy. Among them, fluctuations in mineral resource prices directly affect other industrial sectors in China through the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. Studying the impact of mineral resource price fluctuations on other industries in the industrial chain is of great significance for maintaining the security and stability of the industrial chain and constructing a price fluctuation monitoring and early warning platform. Based on the input-output price model, this paper constructs single and multiple price linkage impact models to study the evolution of the impact of single and multiple mineral resource price fluctuations on the prices of other industries in China from 2001 to 2020. The research findings indicate: ① mineral resource price fluctuations have a greater impact on the secondary and tertiary industries, while the primary industry is the least affected. The extent of the impact of price fluctuations of different mineral resource varieties on other industries also varies. The most affected by price fluctuations in mining and quarrying (energy product production) are coke and refined petroleum products; the most affected by price fluctuations in mining and quarrying (non-energy product production) are basic metals; the most affected by price fluctuations in mining support services is mining and quarrying (energy product production); the most affected by price fluctuations in coke and refined petroleum products is water transport; the most affected by price fluctuations in other non-metallic mineral products is the construction industry; the most affected by price fluctuations in basic metals is metal products. ② The price of mining and quarrying (energy product production) has the greatest impact on the prices of other industries, followed by the price of basic metals, while the price of mining support services has the least impact on the prices of other industries. ③ Industrial price fluctuations are closely related to the supply and demand relationship structure between the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, primarily depending on their position in the industrial chain and product attributes. The research results of this paper provide reference value for constructing dynamic monitoring and early warning system for mineral resource prices and maintaining the security and stability of China’s mineral industrial chain.

       

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