基于“人-机-环-管”的煤矿风险多维度评估与防控

    Multi-dimensional risk assessment and prevention and control of coal mines based on “human-machine-environment-management”

    • 摘要: 针对煤矿安全生产中多维度风险耦合的复杂特性,本文基于“人-机-环-管”理论框架构建了多维度风险评估指标体系,并采用层次分析法与熵权法相结合的组合赋权模型,对各风险因素的权重分布进行了量化分析。研究结果表明,管理因素和环境因素是影响煤矿安全的主导因素,其中,制度执行力与监督有效性、瓦斯涌出量与浓度等指标的风险贡献度尤为显著。通过实证分析,验证了该评估模型的有效性,在此基础上提出了融合实时监测、智能预警与闭环管理的智能防控方案,为煤矿安全生产提供了科学的风险评估方法和精准的管控策略支持。

       

      Abstract: Considering the complex characteristics of multi-dimensional risk coupling in coal mine safety production, this paper establishes a multi-dimensional risk assessment index system based on the “human-machine-environment-management” theoretical framework. It employs a combined weighting model integrating the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) and entropy weight method to conduct a quantitative analysis of the weight distribution of various risk factors. The results indicate that management factors and environmental factors are the dominant factors affecting coal mine safety, among which indicators such as institutional execution, supervision effectiveness, gas emission rate, and gas concentration exhibit particularly significant risk contribution. Empirical analysis verifies the effectiveness of the proposed assessment model. On this basis, an intelligent prevention and control plan integrating real-time monitoring, intelligent early warning, and closed-loop management is put forward, providing scientific risk assessment methods and precise management and control strategy support for coal mine safety production.

       

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