全球硒供需格局及贸易网络特征分析

    Analysis of the global supply and demand pattern and trade network characteristics of selenium

    • 摘要: 硒是一种广泛应用于冶金、玻璃、化工、电子、农业及医药健康等领域的稀散元素。本文通过论述全球硒资源的分布、生产、消费、价格特征,并结合复杂网络方法分析全球硒资源贸易格局的演化规律。研究发现,全球硒资源虽然产业规模较小,但在研究期内全球硒产量保持约6.0%的年均速率增长。全球主要硒生产国已经由日本、比利时、德国、加拿大等国家转变为中国、日本、俄罗斯、比利时、芬兰和加拿大等国家,六国产量占全球产量的90.5%,中国硒产量约占全球的48.6%。硒消费重心正加速从传统冶金行业向玻璃、农业及医药健康、光伏薄膜材料、半导体、红外设备、硒基电池及固态电池等新兴产业转移,消费结构正向“高端化、精细化”转变。全球硒贸易量整体呈波动上升趋势,主要进出口国家(地区)集中度高。全球主要的出口国家为比利时、日本、哈萨克斯坦、加拿大、韩国等,进口国家(地区)主要为意大利、中国、中国香港、印度、美国等。哈萨克斯坦、俄罗斯、菲律宾、波兰、芬兰、意大利等国家在全球贸易网络中的地位将逐渐提高,德国、英国在欧洲及全球的硒贸易地位逐渐下降。全球硒贸易团体存在明显的区域特征,整体可分为亚洲社团、欧洲社团、美洲社团和澳洲社团,社团内部区域集中度高。中国应继续巩固其在全球硒贸易市场的主导地位,加强高端硒产品的技术研发,提升产品附加值,避免低价竞争,并且通过多元化资源配置提高硒资源供应链的稳定性和安全性。

       

      Abstract: Selenium is a dispersed element widely used in metallurgy, glass, chemical industry, electronics, agriculture and medicine and health. This paper discusses the distribution, production, consumption and price of global selenium resources, and analyzes the evolution characteristics of global selenium resource trade pattern by using a complex network method. The study found that although the global selenium resources industry is small, the global selenium production will maintain an average annual growth rate of about 6.0% from 2000 to 2024. The global major selenium producing countries have gradually changed from Japan, Belgium, Germany, Canada and other countries to China, Japan, Russia, Belgium, Finland and Canada, with the six countries accounting for 90.5% of the global output and China’s selenium production accounting for about 48.6% of the global total. The focus of selenium consumption is rapidly shifting from traditional metallurgical industries to emerging sectors such as glass, agriculture and healthcare, photovoltaic thin-film materials, semiconductors, infrared equipment, selenium-based batteries, and solid-state batteries, with the consumption structure moving toward “high-end and refined” applications. The global selenium trade volume has shown a fluctuating upward trend as a whole, and the concentration of major import and export countries is high. The major exporting countries globally include Belgium, Japan, Kazakhstan, Canada, South Korea, etc., while the main importing countries (regions) are Italy, China, Hong Kong, India, the United States, etc. The position of emerging selenium-producing countries such as Kazakhstan, Russia, and the Philippines in the global trade network will gradually improve, while the selenium trade status of Germany and the United Kingdom in the world and Europe will gradually decline. There are obvious regional characteristics in the global selenium trade community, which can be divided into Asian, European, American, and Australian communities as a whole, with high regional concentration within the communities. China should continue to consolidate its dominant position in the global selenium trade market, while strengthening the technological research and development of high-end selenium products, enhancing product added value, avoiding low price competition, and improving the stability and safety of the selenium resource supply chain through diversified resource allocation.

       

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