基于相对熵的铜矿石贸易国家地位和影响力研究

    Study on national status and influence in copper ore trade based on relative entropy

    • 摘要: 铜作为支撑新能源与高端制造的战略性矿产,其供需格局与贸易流向深刻影响各国经济安全、产业布局及地缘博弈。本研究旨在揭示全球铜矿石贸易网络中的国家地位和影响力,为提升国家铜资源控制力、制定科学铜资源安全战略提供支撑。基于联合国贸易商品统计数据库(UN Comtrade)1996—2022年铜矿石(HS260300)贸易数据,构建全球铜矿石有向加权复杂网络;结合模块度与贸易集团数量,将网络演化划分为四个阶段(1996—2002年、2003—2011年、2012—2018年、2019—2022年);通过赫芬达尔-赫希曼指数(HHI)、聚类系数分析网络集聚性,构建国家综合优势地位指标,引入相对熵量化国家影响力。研究结果表明:①全球铜矿石贸易网络规模整体呈增长态势,仅受2009年金融危机、2015年铜价低迷等事件影响出现短期波动;②贸易集团核心格局从初期智利、印度尼西亚出口,日本进口,逐步演变为中国主导进口,2008年中国成为全球最大铜矿石进口国,2019年后贸易量与影响力均居首位;③网络HHI指数始终低于1 500,无贸易垄断现象,中国呈现“高Si、低聚类系数”(贸易量大但伙伴分散)特征,智利、秘鲁等出口国则呈“低Si、高聚类系数”(贸易关联紧密)特征;④国家地位与影响力历经“日本主导(1996—2002年)—智利-日本-中国协同(2003—2011年)—中国主导(2007年后)”的演变过程。本研究系统揭示了1996—2022年全球铜矿石贸易网络的演化规律与国家角色动态变迁,明确了中国、智利、日本等核心国家的地位与影响力演变路径,可为各国优化铜矿石贸易策略、提升资源安全保障能力提供理论依据与数据支撑。

       

      Abstract: Copper, as a strategic mineral supporting new energy and high-end manufacturing, its supply-demand pattern and trade flow profoundly impact the economic security, industrial layout, and geopolitical dynamics of various countries. This study aims to reveal the status and influence of countries in the global copper ore trade network, thereby providing support for enhancing national control over copper resources and formulating scientific strategies for copper resources security. Based on the United Nations Comtrade Database(UN Comtrade) trade data for copper ore(HS260300) from 1996 to 2022, a directed and weighted complex network of global copper ore trade is constructed. Using modularity and the number of trade blocs, the evolution of the network is divided into 4 stages(1996-2002, 2003-2011, 2012-2018, 2019-2022). The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index(HHI) and clustering coefficient are employed to analyze network concentration, national status indicators are constructed, and relative entropy is introduced to quantify national influence. The results indicate that: ①the scale of the global copper ore trade network generally shows an increasing trend, with only short-term fluctuations due to events such as the 2009 financial crisis and the low copper prices in 2015. ②The core structure of trade blocs evolves from an initial pattern of Chile and Indonesia as exporters and Japan as an importer to a pattern dominated by China as the leading importer. China became the world’s largest copper ore importer in 2008, and after 2019, ranks first in both trade volume and influence. ③The network’s HHI index remains below 1 500, indicating no trade monopoly. China exhibits characteristics of “high Si and low clustering coefficient”(large trade volume but dispersed partners), while exporters such as Chile and Peru show “low Si and high clustering coefficient”(close trade associations). ④National status and influence undergo an evolution process from “Japan-led(1996-2002)” to “Chile-Japan-China coordination(2003-2011)” and finally to “China-led(after 2007)”. This study systematically reveals the evolution patterns of the global copper ore trade network from 1996 to 2022 and the dynamic changes in national roles, clarifying the evolution paths of the status and influence of core countries such as China, Chile, and Japan. It provides a theoretical basis and data support for countries to optimize their copper ore trade strategies and enhance resources security capabilities.

       

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