Abstract:
Copper, as a strategic mineral supporting new energy and high-end manufacturing, its supply-demand pattern and trade flow profoundly impact the economic security, industrial layout, and geopolitical dynamics of various countries. This study aims to reveal the status and influence of countries in the global copper ore trade network, thereby providing support for enhancing national control over copper resources and formulating scientific strategies for copper resources security. Based on the United Nations Comtrade Database(UN Comtrade) trade data for copper ore(HS260300) from 1996 to 2022, a directed and weighted complex network of global copper ore trade is constructed. Using modularity and the number of trade blocs, the evolution of the network is divided into 4 stages(1996-2002, 2003-2011, 2012-2018, 2019-2022). The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index(HHI) and clustering coefficient are employed to analyze network concentration, national status indicators are constructed, and relative entropy is introduced to quantify national influence. The results indicate that: ①the scale of the global copper ore trade network generally shows an increasing trend, with only short-term fluctuations due to events such as the 2009 financial crisis and the low copper prices in 2015. ②The core structure of trade blocs evolves from an initial pattern of Chile and Indonesia as exporters and Japan as an importer to a pattern dominated by China as the leading importer. China became the world’s largest copper ore importer in 2008, and after 2019, ranks first in both trade volume and influence. ③The network’s HHI index remains below 1 500, indicating no trade monopoly. China exhibits characteristics of “high
Si and low clustering coefficient”(large trade volume but dispersed partners), while exporters such as Chile and Peru show “low
Si and high clustering coefficient”(close trade associations). ④National status and influence undergo an evolution process from “Japan-led(1996-2002)” to “Chile-Japan-China coordination(2003-2011)” and finally to “China-led(after 2007)”. This study systematically reveals the evolution patterns of the global copper ore trade network from 1996 to 2022 and the dynamic changes in national roles, clarifying the evolution paths of the status and influence of core countries such as China, Chile, and Japan. It provides a theoretical basis and data support for countries to optimize their copper ore trade strategies and enhance resources security capabilities.