中国锆资源国际供应链评价与资源保障战略研究

    Evaluation and resource security strategy study on the international supply chain of zirconium resources in China

    • 摘要: 中国作为全球最大的锆资源消费国,受国内储量和产能规模影响,外采度长期保持在90%以上。随着核工业和新一代信息技术产业的加速发展,国内锆资源需求仍将持续增长,因此,亟须保障国际供应链安全和提升国内供应能力。基于国际供应链安全评价体系,对2013—2023年的锆资源供给安全和贸易流通安全两个维度的十三项指标进行分析,结果显示,锆资源国际供应链风险整体趋于释缓但仍存在波动风险,按照风险态势可以划分为高风险期(2013—2016年)、首次风险波动期(2016—2018年)、风险下降期(2018—2021年)和第二次风险波动期(2021—2023年)四个阶段。另外,从资源禀赋、选冶和回收利用等三个方面分析国内锆资源保障现状显示,国内锆资源勘查远景可观,碱性岩型锆矿选矿技术已有突破,核级锆材的回收体系已经建立。综合国际供应链安全评价和国内资源保障现状分析结果,中国仍面临锆资源市场供需缺口持续扩大、供给多元化程度不足、选冶技术有待进一步提高、二次资源回收体系不完善等挑战。针对上述问题,建议中国应优先增加滨海地区及塔里木盆地边缘新生代沉积锆矿砂的勘查投入,构建多元化的国际供应链,优化选冶工艺的资金投入,强化二次资源回收力度,扩大核级锆材产能,建立锆资源国家战略储备体系,以全面保障中国锆资源供应能力和韧性。

       

      Abstract: As the global largest consumer of zirconium resources, China’s reliance on external sources has long remained above 90% due to domestic reserves and production capacity constraints. With the accelerated development of the nuclear industry and the new generation of information technology, domestic demand for zirconium resources is expected to continue to grow. Therefore, it is urgent to ensure the security of the international supply chain and enhance domestic supply capabilities. Based on the international supply chain security evaluation system, an analysis of thirteen indicators across two dimensions—resource supply security and trade circulation security—from 2013 to 2023 reveals that the overall risk in the international zirconium resources supply chain has trended toward alleviation, but it remains at risk of fluctuation. These risks can be categorized into four phases: the high-risk period (2013–2016), the first risk fluctuation period (2016–2018), the risk decline period (2018–2021), and the second risk fluctuation period (2021–2023). Additionally, an analysis of domestic zirconium resources security from the perspectives of resources endowment, beneficiation and smelting, and recycling shows promising prospects for zirconium exploration, breakthroughs in beneficiation technology for alkaline rock-type zirconium ores, and the establishment of a recycling system for nuclear-grade zirconium materials. Based on the results of the international supply chain security evaluation and analysis of the current situation of domestic resource security, China is still facing challenges such as an expanding supply-demand gap in the zirconium resources, insufficient diversification of supply, the need for further improvement in beneficiation technologies, and an incomplete secondary resource recycling system. To solve these problems, China should focus on increasing investment in exploration of Cenozoic sedimentary zirconium ores in coastal areas and along the margins of the Tarim Basin, building a diverse international supply chain, optimizing funding for beneficiation processes, strengthening efforts to recycle secondary resources, increasing the production capacity of nuclear-grade zirconium materials, and setting up a national strategic reserve system for zirconium resources to comprehensively protect supply capabilities and resilience.

       

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