全球铜供应链多层网络的级联失效与韧性评估研究

    Research on cascading failures and resilience assessment of multi-layer networks in the global copper supply chain

    • 摘要: 全球铜供应链的稳定性对能源转型与工业安全至关重要。针对现有研究缺乏动态演进视角及忽视节点异质性的局限,本文利用2019年、2021年、2023年全球铜贸易数据(折合金属量),构建了涵盖上游(原料)、中游(冶炼)、下游(制造)的多层耦合网络。研究引入熵权法量化贸易量排名前30位的核心国家/地区的内生韧性(涵盖国家/地区量、治理能力及贸易多元化程度),并建立了包含物理产量缓冲与贸易依赖阻尼的混合级联失效模型,系统模拟了供需双侧冲击下的风险传播机制。研究结果表明:①网络结构呈现阶段性演变特征,上游供应由2019—2021年的高度集中(智利、秘鲁主导)逐步转向2023年的去中心化(刚果民主共和国、印度尼西亚崛起);中游冶炼环节的瓶颈效应在三年中持续凸显,全球脆弱性居高不下。②节点地位异质性显著,中国从2019年以下游制造为主,逐步拓展为2023年覆盖上中下游的全链条枢纽;智利等资源国则长期表现为高贸易强度但低网络控制力的特征。③风险传播具有不对称性,供给冲击呈扇形扩散效应,波及全球下游市场;需求冲击呈靶向收敛特征,受损高度集中于主要资源出口国。④网络韧性逐步改善,2023年通过贸易多元化、关键节点韧性提升,系统对单一节点冲击的抵御能力显著增强,级联失效的损失量较2021年高峰明显下降。最后本文针对资源国产业升级可能引发的纵向一体化垄断风险、消费国构建立体化供应体系及中游产能布局提出了分层政策建议。

       

      Abstract: The stability of the global copper supply chain is pivotal to the energy transition and industrial security. Addressing the limitations of existing research, specifically the lack of dynamic evolutionary perspectives and the oversight of node heterogeneity, this study constructs a multi-layer coupled network encompassing upstream (raw materials), midstream (smelting), and downstream (manufacturing) sectors, utilizing global copper trade data (converted to metal content) from 2019, 2021, and 2023. This study introduces the Entropy Weight Method to quantify the endogenous resilience of the top 30 core nations/regions by trade volume, incorporating variables such as reserves, governance capacity, and trade diversification. Furthermore, a hybrid cascading failure model, integrating physical production buffers and trade dependency damping, is established to systematically simulate risk propagation mechanisms under dual-side supply and demand shocks. The results indicate the following: ①the network structure exhibits phased evolutionary characteristics. Upstream supply transitions from high concentration (dominated by Chile and Peru) during 2019-2021 to a trend of decentralization (marked by the rise of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Indonesia) in 2023. Meanwhile, bottleneck effects in the midstream smelting sector remain pronounced throughout the three years, sustaining high global vulnerability. ②Significant node heterogeneity is observed. China evolves from a role dominated by downstream manufacturing in 2019 to a comprehensive full-chain hub covering upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors by 2023. Conversely, resource-rich nations like Chile consistently display characteristics of high trade intensity but low network control. ③Risk propagation exhibits asymmetry. Supply shocks manifest as a fan-shaped diffusion effect, rippling through global downstream markets. In contrast, demand shocks demonstrate a targeted convergence pattern, with losses highly concentrated among major resource exporters. ④Network resilience gradually improves. By 2023, driven by trade diversification and the enhanced resilience of critical nodes, the system’s resistance to single-node shocks is significantly strengthened, with losses from cascading failures declining markedly from the 2021 peak. Finally, this paper proposes stratified policy recommendations addressing potential vertical integration monopoly risks stemming from industrial upgrading in resource nations, the construction of multi-dimensional supply systems in consumer nations, and the strategic layout of midstream capacity.

       

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