Abstract:
The stability of the global copper supply chain is pivotal to the energy transition and industrial security. Addressing the limitations of existing research, specifically the lack of dynamic evolutionary perspectives and the oversight of node heterogeneity, this study constructs a multi-layer coupled network encompassing upstream (raw materials), midstream (smelting), and downstream (manufacturing) sectors, utilizing global copper trade data (converted to metal content) from 2019, 2021, and 2023. This study introduces the Entropy Weight Method to quantify the endogenous resilience of the top 30 core nations/regions by trade volume, incorporating variables such as reserves, governance capacity, and trade diversification. Furthermore, a hybrid cascading failure model, integrating physical production buffers and trade dependency damping, is established to systematically simulate risk propagation mechanisms under dual-side supply and demand shocks. The results indicate the following: ①the network structure exhibits phased evolutionary characteristics. Upstream supply transitions from high concentration (dominated by Chile and Peru) during 2019-2021 to a trend of decentralization (marked by the rise of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Indonesia) in 2023. Meanwhile, bottleneck effects in the midstream smelting sector remain pronounced throughout the three years, sustaining high global vulnerability. ②Significant node heterogeneity is observed. China evolves from a role dominated by downstream manufacturing in 2019 to a comprehensive full-chain hub covering upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors by 2023. Conversely, resource-rich nations like Chile consistently display characteristics of high trade intensity but low network control. ③Risk propagation exhibits asymmetry. Supply shocks manifest as a fan-shaped diffusion effect, rippling through global downstream markets. In contrast, demand shocks demonstrate a targeted convergence pattern, with losses highly concentrated among major resource exporters. ④Network resilience gradually improves. By 2023, driven by trade diversification and the enhanced resilience of critical nodes, the system’s resistance to single-node shocks is significantly strengthened, with losses from cascading failures declining markedly from the 2021 peak. Finally, this paper proposes stratified policy recommendations addressing potential vertical integration monopoly risks stemming from industrial upgrading in resource nations, the construction of multi-dimensional supply systems in consumer nations, and the strategic layout of midstream capacity.