“十五五”共建“一带一路”能源供需安全形势分析

    Analysis of energy supply and demand security situation for the Belt and Road Initiative during the 15th Five-Year Plan Period

    • 摘要: 自2013年我国提出共建“一带一路”倡议以来,始终坚持共商共建共享原则,取得了重大成就。在碳达峰碳中和背景下,以大数据、人工智能等为代表的数字产业,以及以电动汽车、高速铁路等为代表的电气化转型正推动全球电力需求激增,而共建“一带一路”能源合作的核心是绿色低碳转型,在统筹好发展和安全的前提下,如何保障中国能源供需绿色、安全、经济和可持续性是关键所在,这将为2030年基本实现社会主义现代化奠定更加坚实的能源基础。本文研判了2030年和2060年能源供需形势,“十五五”煤炭和石油消费将达峰,中国原油产量2030年之前能够保持2×108 t以上水平,原油消费量2030年前达到峰值,但供需缺口仍然较大,对外依存度约70%,“十六五”将处于峰值平台下降期;预计到2030年,中国天然气产量将达3 000×108 m3,天然气消费量将达5 000×108 m3,对外依存度约40%。近十多年,中国能源公司实施“走出去”战略,积极参与国际能源合作和全球市场竞争,以“一带一路”共建国家为重点,着力打造能源合作利益共同体,“一带一路”国际能源合作取得丰硕成果,一批重大标志性能源工程落地生根,跨境能源战略通道实现“硬联通”,周边互联互通新格局初步形成,以规则标准“软联通”为纽带,与共建国家人民“心联通”,持续深化与“一带一路”共建国家能源合作。未来五年,中国将持续推进共建“一带一路”能源合作,坚持绿色化、智能化、融合化方向,聚焦周边,突出能源绿色低碳转型,加强与共建国家战略对接,深化能源基础设施“硬联通”、规则标准“软联通”、同共建国家人民“心联通”,统筹推进能源重大标志性工程和“小而美”民生项目建设。通过分析研判中国未来五年共建“一带一路”面临的机遇和挑战,提出三点政策建议。一是统筹国内国外“一盘棋”,做好能源基础设施转型升级的顶层设计。非化石能源将逐渐成为能源供给的主力军,能源基础设施逐渐由“煤、油(气)、电”向“电、绿氢、氨、醇、低碳能源”转型升级。加强《能源中长期发展规划》《氢氨醇中长期发展规划》等顶层设计,统筹考虑国内国外能源供给通道建设,加快构建具有高比例新能源特征的新型电力系统,统筹布局绿氢、氨、醇等绿色燃料储输用一体化产业。二是优化能源资源配置,做好与新型能源体系相适应的能源体制机制改革的转变。做好化石能源“有序退”和可再生能源快速发展之间的衔接,慎重投资海外化石能源重资产项目和跨境化石能源互联互通项目,保障国家能源供应的稳定性、安全性和经济性。三是做好与绿色低碳转型相适应的能源对外合作的转型升级,推动“中国技术+中国标准+中国装备+中国建设”全链条“走出去”,力争为全球能源绿色低碳转型发挥更大作用。

       

      Abstract: Since the Belt and Road Initiative was proposed in 2013, China has always adhered to the principles of extensive consultation, joint contribution, and shared benefits, and has achieved remarkable accomplishments. Against the backdrop of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, the digital industry represented by big data and artificial intelligence, as well as the electrification transformation represented by electric vehicles and high-speed railways, are driving a surge in global electricity demand. The core of energy cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative lies in green and low-carbon transition. On the premise of balancing development and security, how to ensure the greenness, security, economy and sustainability of China’s energy supply and demand is crucial, which will lay a more solid energy foundation for basically realizing socialist modernization by 2030. The paper assesses the energy supply and demand situation for 2030 and 2060. The consumption of coal and oil will peak during the 15th Five-Year Plan. China’s crude oil production will remain above 200 million tons before 2030, with crude oil consumption peaking before 2030, however, the supply-demand gap will still be significant, with an external dependency rate of approximately 70%, and during the 16th Five-Year Plan, it will enter a declining phase from the peak. It is estimated that by 2030, China’s natural gas production will reach 300 billion cubic meters and natural gas consumption will reach 500 billion cubic meters, with an external dependency rate of approximately 40%. Over the past decade and more, Chinese energy companies have implemented the “Going Global” strategy, actively participating in international energy cooperation and global market competition. Focusing on co-building countries of the Belt and Road Initiative, have strived to build a community of shared interests in energy cooperation. Fruitful achievements have been made in international energy cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative: a number of major landmark energy projects have taken root, cross-border strategic energy corridors have achieved “hard connectivity”, a new pattern of regional connectivity has initially taken shape, and “soft connectivity” through rules and standards has served as a bond to foster “people-to-people connectivity” with populations of co-building countries, continuously deepening energy cooperation with these nations. In the next five years, China will continue to advance energy cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative, adhering to the direction of greenization, intellectualization, and integration. It will focus on neighboring regions, emphasize the green and low-carbon transition of energy, strengthen strategic alignment with co-building countries, deepen the “hard connectivity” of energy infrastructure, “soft connectivity” of rules and standards, and “people-to-people connectivity” with co-building countries, while promoting the coordinated development of major landmark energy projects and small-scale, people-centered livelihood projects. By analyzing and assessing the opportunities and challenges that China will face in the joint construction of the Belt and Road Initiative over the next five years, this paper concludes with three policy recommendations. Firstly, to adopt an integrated domestic and international approach to strengthen the top-level design for the transformation and upgrading of energy infrastructure. Non-fossil energy will gradually become the mainstay of energy supply, and energy infrastructure will shift from a “coal, oil (gas), and electricity” model to one centered on “electricity, green hydrogen, ammonia, alcohols, and low-carbon energy”. To strengthen the top-level design of documents such as the Medium and Long-Term Energy Development Plan and the Medium and Long-Term Development Plan for Hydrogen, Ammonia, and Alcohols, comprehensively consider the construction of domestic and international energy supply corridors, to accelerate the development of a new power system featuring a high proportion of new energy, and to promote the coordinated layout of integrated industrial chains for the storage, transportation, and utilization of green fuels such as green hydrogen, ammonia, and alcohols. Secondly, to optimize the allocation of energy resources and advance the transformation of energy systems and mechanisms in alignment with the new energy system. To ensure a smooth transition between the “orderly phase-out” of fossil energy and the rapid development of renewable energy, exercise prudence in investing in overseas heavy-asset fossil energy projects and cross-border fossil energy connectivity projects, and safeguard the stability, security, and economic efficiency of national energy supply. Thirdly, to upgrade energy cooperation with foreign partners to adapt to the green and low-carbon transition, to promote the full-chain “Going Global” of “Chinese technology + Chinese standards + Chinese equipment + Chinese construction”, and to strive to play a greater role in the global energy transition toward green and low-carbon development.

       

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