Abstract:
Since the Belt and Road Initiative was proposed in 2013, China has always adhered to the principles of extensive consultation, joint contribution, and shared benefits, and has achieved remarkable accomplishments. Against the backdrop of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, the digital industry represented by big data and artificial intelligence, as well as the electrification transformation represented by electric vehicles and high-speed railways, are driving a surge in global electricity demand. The core of energy cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative lies in green and low-carbon transition. On the premise of balancing development and security, how to ensure the greenness, security, economy and sustainability of China’s energy supply and demand is crucial, which will lay a more solid energy foundation for basically realizing socialist modernization by 2030. The paper assesses the energy supply and demand situation for 2030 and 2060. The consumption of coal and oil will peak during the 15th Five-Year Plan. China’s crude oil production will remain above 200 million tons before 2030, with crude oil consumption peaking before 2030, however, the supply-demand gap will still be significant, with an external dependency rate of approximately 70%, and during the 16th Five-Year Plan, it will enter a declining phase from the peak. It is estimated that by 2030, China’s natural gas production will reach 300 billion cubic meters and natural gas consumption will reach 500 billion cubic meters, with an external dependency rate of approximately 40%. Over the past decade and more, Chinese energy companies have implemented the “Going Global” strategy, actively participating in international energy cooperation and global market competition. Focusing on co-building countries of the Belt and Road Initiative, have strived to build a community of shared interests in energy cooperation. Fruitful achievements have been made in international energy cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative: a number of major landmark energy projects have taken root, cross-border strategic energy corridors have achieved “hard connectivity”, a new pattern of regional connectivity has initially taken shape, and “soft connectivity” through rules and standards has served as a bond to foster “people-to-people connectivity” with populations of co-building countries, continuously deepening energy cooperation with these nations. In the next five years, China will continue to advance energy cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative, adhering to the direction of greenization, intellectualization, and integration. It will focus on neighboring regions, emphasize the green and low-carbon transition of energy, strengthen strategic alignment with co-building countries, deepen the “hard connectivity” of energy infrastructure, “soft connectivity” of rules and standards, and “people-to-people connectivity” with co-building countries, while promoting the coordinated development of major landmark energy projects and small-scale, people-centered livelihood projects. By analyzing and assessing the opportunities and challenges that China will face in the joint construction of the Belt and Road Initiative over the next five years, this paper concludes with three policy recommendations. Firstly, to adopt an integrated domestic and international approach to strengthen the top-level design for the transformation and upgrading of energy infrastructure. Non-fossil energy will gradually become the mainstay of energy supply, and energy infrastructure will shift from a “coal, oil (gas), and electricity” model to one centered on “electricity, green hydrogen, ammonia, alcohols, and low-carbon energy”. To strengthen the top-level design of documents such as the Medium and Long-Term Energy Development Plan and the Medium and Long-Term Development Plan for Hydrogen, Ammonia, and Alcohols, comprehensively consider the construction of domestic and international energy supply corridors, to accelerate the development of a new power system featuring a high proportion of new energy, and to promote the coordinated layout of integrated industrial chains for the storage, transportation, and utilization of green fuels such as green hydrogen, ammonia, and alcohols. Secondly, to optimize the allocation of energy resources and advance the transformation of energy systems and mechanisms in alignment with the new energy system. To ensure a smooth transition between the “orderly phase-out” of fossil energy and the rapid development of renewable energy, exercise prudence in investing in overseas heavy-asset fossil energy projects and cross-border fossil energy connectivity projects, and safeguard the stability, security, and economic efficiency of national energy supply. Thirdly, to upgrade energy cooperation with foreign partners to adapt to the green and low-carbon transition, to promote the full-chain “Going Global” of “Chinese technology + Chinese standards + Chinese equipment + Chinese construction”, and to strive to play a greater role in the global energy transition toward green and low-carbon development.