中国油气“十四五”发展回顾与“十五五”高质量发展展望

    Review of China’s oil and gas development during the 14th Five-Year Plan Period and outlook for high-quality development during the 15th Five-Year Plan Period

    • 摘要: “十四五”时期,面临疫情冲击、地缘冲突、能源格局深刻调整等复杂的政治经济形势,中国油气上游勘探开发投资与储产量创历史新高,地质理论和技术装备不断创新,有效促进“两深一非一老”多领域取得重大突破和进展,保供能力持续提升,提前两年完成规划目标。“十五五”期间,油气发展面临全球政治经济格局重构、国内外多重发展周期叠加、行业自然递减率升高等新形势,持续低油价、资源劣质化、理论技术创新不足、能源转型等挑战,将直接影响中国油气增储上产、能源供应安全和经济社会可持续发展。因此,必须以保障国家能源安全为目标,推进油气上游高质量发展,统筹好量的合理增长和质的有效提升。一是要统筹国产与进口,探索建立灵活上产和进口的调节机制,提升适应市场需要的生产供应能力;二是要提质增效、绿色低碳,低成本高效开发,提高资源开发利用效率和经济效益,统筹推进资源开发与生态环境保护、油气与新能源协调发展。需要在以下几方面着力:一是加强形势跟踪和风险预警评估,做好顶层设计和规划引领;二是强化理论和科技创新,提高发展质量和效率;三是坚持降本增效和多元进口,提升开发利用经济性;四是持续深化市场化改革,进一步调动勘探开发积极性;五是推进与新能源融合发展,助力能源转型。

       

      Abstract: During the 14th Five-Year Plan Period, facing a complex political and economic landscape including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical conflicts and profound adjustments to the energy structure, China’s upstream oil and gas exploration and development investment, as well as reserves and output, hit a record high. Geological theories, technologies and equipment continue to innovate, effectively driving major breakthroughs and progress in multiple fields of “deep formation, deepwater oil and gas exploration, unconventional resources and mature oilfield redevelopment”. The supply guarantee capacity has been steadily enhanced, and the targets of the 14th Five-Year Plan have been achieved two years ahead of schedule. In the 15th Five-Year Plan Period, the development of the oil and gas sector is confronted with a new landscape featuring the restructure of the global political and economic order, the overlap of multiple development cycles at home and abroad, and the rise of the industry’s natural decline rate. Challenges such as a prolonged period of low oil prices, resource inferiorization, insufficient innovation in theories and technologies, and the energy transition will directly affect China’s oil and gas reserve and output growth, energy supply security, and the sustainable economic and social development. Therefore, it is necessary to take safeguarding national energy security as the core goal, advance the high-quality development of the upstream oil and gas sector, and ensure a well-coordinated balance between the rational growth of volume and the effective improvement of quality. Firstly, there is a need to balance domestic production and imports to enhance the production and supply capacity adapted to market demand. Secondly, there is a need to pursue low-cost and high-efficiency development to raise the efficiency of resource development and utilization as well as economic returns. The following efforts should be made: strengthen the tracking of development trends and risk early warning assessment, and improve top-level design and planning guidance; intensify innovation in theories, science and technology; adhere to cost reduction, efficiency improvement and diversified imports; further deepen market-oriented reforms and fully stimulate the enthusiasm for oil and gas exploration and development; promote integrated development with new energy sources to support the energy transition.

       

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