超大城市公共交通电动化转型中关键金属回收潜力与经济效应评估:以上海市为例

    Assessment of the potential for critical metal recycling and economic effects in the electrification transition of public transportation in mega-cities: a case study of Shanghai

    • 摘要: 在“十五五”规划建议明确推进绿色低碳转型的国内战略导向下,叠加全球地缘政治演变引发的产业链供应链重构,公共交通电动化已成为城市交通体系转型的核心路径。该路径的规模化推进,离不开关键金属资源的稳定供给与高效循环利用。在此情况下,为描述超大城市在公共交通电动化进程中关键金属资源的循环利用水平与经济价值评估,本文以上海市公共交通中纯电动出租车为研究对象,基于动态物质流分析,核算了不同情景下动力蓄电池中锂、镍、钴、锰四种关键金属的回收潜力,并对经济效应进行评估。研究针对2025—2050年间,对纯电动出租车的需求量、报废量,以及关键金属的需求量、报废量和回收量进行核算,并评估了经济效应。研究结果表明:随着公共交通电动化进程的推进,纯电动出租车规模及动力蓄电池中关键金属需求量呈现快速增长态势。2025—2050年间,伴随车辆及动力蓄电池中关键金属的需求量和报废量的逐步攀升,关键金属回收潜力显著,累计可回收量预计为157.02~365.75 t、144.67~336.98 t、50.83~118.40 t、46.92~109.29 t。由此衍生的经济价值巨大,预计至2050年,锂、镍、钴、锰四种关键金属的可实现经济效应分别累计为1 130.57~2 633.39万元、1 540.79~3 588.89万元、1 138.63~2 652.16万元、1 407.65~3 278.77元。同时,本文研究为上海市推进公共交通电动化、关键金属回收及资源可持续发展利用提供了相关建议,也为同类型和其他类型城市的全面绿色转型提供了参考。

       

      Abstract: Under the domestic strategic guidance of promoting a green and low-carbon transition as outlined in the recommendations for the “15th Five-Year Plan”, coupled with the restructuring of industrial and supply chains triggered by global geopolitical developments, the electrification of public transportation has become a core pathway for the transformation of urban transportation systems. The large-scale advancement of this pathway relies on the stable supply and efficient recycling of critical metal resources. In this context, to describe the level of recycling and economic value assessment of critical metal resources in mega-cities during the process of public transportation electrification, this study takes pure electric taxis in Shanghai’s public transportation system as the research object. Based on dynamic material flow analysis, it calculates the recycling potential of four critical metals—lithium, nickel, cobalt, and manganese—in power batteries under different scenarios and assesses the economic effects. The study estimates the demand, scrappage, and recycling amounts of pure electric taxis and the associated critical metals between 2025 and 2050, and evaluates their economic impacts. The results indicate that with the advancement of public transportation electrification, the scale of pure electric taxis and the demand for critical metals in power batteries will grow rapidly. Between 2025 and 2050, as the demand and scrappage of critical metals in vehicles and power batteries gradually increase, the recycling potential for these metals is significant, with cumulative recycling amounts estimate at 157.02-365.75 t, 144.67-336.98 t, 50.83-118.40 t, and 46.92-109.29 t, respectively. The derived economic value is substantial, with the achievable economic effects of lithium, nickel, cobalt, and manganese expect to cumulatively reach 11.305 7-26.333 9 million yuan, 15.407 9-35.888 9 million yuan, 11.386 3-26.521 6 million yuan, and 1 407.65-3 278.77 yuan by 2050, respectively. Moreover, this study offers relevant recommendations for Shanghai to advance the electrification of public transportation, the recycling of critical metals, and the sustainable utilization of resources, and provides a reference for the comprehensive green transformation of similar and other types of cities.

       

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