2025年中国自然资源经济形势回顾与展望

    Analysis of China’s natural resources economic situation in 2025 and outlook

    • 摘要: 2025年,全球经济低迷态势持续扩散,受美国关税政策等外部因素的冲击,中国自然资源要素供给市场呈现出结构性调整的特征。本研究基于自然资源供给指数监测及行业实证数据,对土地、矿业权、测绘地理信息这三大核心要素的供给态势展开系统分析:全年自然资源供给指数降至90.59(低于基准线),土地市场呈现“总量缩减、结构优化”的特点,国有建设用地供应较2024年度下降21.3%,但工业用地占比提高了4.1个百分点;矿业权市场活跃度大幅提升,探矿权出让量同比增长142.5%,战略性矿产溢价率居高不下,新能源矿产成为市场焦点;地理信息产业总产值预计将突破9 000亿元,上市企业研发强度达到11.2%,远超战略性新兴产业平均水平。研究结果显示,中国自然资源要素供给与GDP增长的协调性良好,要素配置的精准度持续提高,但仍面临土地市场需求乏力、传统矿产转型压力较大、测绘产业竞争力较弱等问题。基于此,本研究提出2026年的发展路径:通过城市更新挖掘存量土地价值,提升战略性矿产全链条韧性,加强测绘地理信息技术创新及数据要素市场化,从而为经济高质量发展提供坚实的要素保障。

       

      Abstract: In 2025, the global economic downturn continued to spread, and impacted by external factors such as U.S. tariff policies, China’s natural resource element supply market exhibited characteristics of structural adjustment. Based on monitoring of the natural resource supply index and industry empirical data, this paper systematically analyzes the supply patterns of three core elements: land, mining rights, and surveying/mapping geospatial information. Throughout the year, the natural resource supply index falls to 90.59 (below the baseline). The land market demonstrates “overall contraction with structural optimization”, as state-owned construction land supply decreases by 21.3% compared to the previous year, while the proportion of industrial land increases by 4.1 percentage points. Market activity in mining rights significantly is improved, with exploration rights offerings growing by 142.5% year-on-year. Premium rates for strategic mineral resources remain high, with new energy minerals becoming the market focus. The geospatial information industry’s total output value is expected to exceed 900 billion yuan, with R&D intensity of listed companies reaching 11.2%, significantly higher than the average level of strategic emerging industries. Research results indicate that China’s natural resource element supply maintains good coordination with GDP growth, and the precision of resource allocation continues to improve. However, challenges remain, including weak land market demand, significant transformation pressures on traditional mining sectors, and relatively weak competitiveness in the surveying and mapping industry. Based on these findings, this study proposes development pathways for 2026: unlocking the value of existing land through urban renewal, enhancing the resilience of the entire value chain for strategic minerals, strengthening technological innovation in surveying/mapping geospatial information, and promoting the marketization of geospatial data elements, thereby providing solid resource element guarantees for high-quality economic development.

       

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