2025年国内外油气资源形势分析及展望

    Analysis of global and domestic oil and gas resource dynamics in 2025 and outlook

    • 摘要: 在国际博弈加剧与供需矛盾叠加的背景下,保障油气资源安全的重要性日益凸显。我国油气供需缺口长期存在,外采度持续处于高位,2025年石油外采度超过70%,天然气超过40%,因此,加快国内油气勘查开采技术突破与产能提升成为维护能源安全的关键。本文基于“全球地缘政治-经济周期-能源转型”三维分析框架,结合对国际重大事件与能源热点的持续跟踪,依托国际货币基金组织(IMF)、国际能源署(IEA)、美国能源信息署(EIA)、欧佩克(OPEC)等权威机构的公开报告,系统分析2025年国内外油气市场格局与发展趋势,并与2020年“双碳”目标提出初期及2021年“十四五”开局阶段的核心指标进行纵向对比;同时,与美国、印度等主要油气消费国2025年数据开展横向比较。研究结果表明:全球地缘格局演变与贸易政策不确定性共同强化了经济放缓预期,叠加OPEC+增产与非OPEC国家高产量,国际石油市场供需趋于宽松,油价呈宽幅震荡下行;全球天然气市场呈现区域分化、供需趋松、波动收窄的特征,价格受地缘政治、供需关系及天气因素共同驱动。我国经济稳中有进,能源消费“稳中有增”,油气勘探在主要盆地和近海取得重要突破,产量保持“油稳气增”并创历史新高,非常规油气占比显著提升,天然气消费进一步向民生领域倾斜,但原油进口来源集中、自给率偏低等问题依然突出。展望2026年,全球石油市场将延续宽松态势,油价预计震荡下行;天然气价格呈分化走势,美国均价回升,全球市场受欧洲库存与亚洲需求制约难现大涨。国内油气产量将继续增长,原油保持稳产,天然气年产量有望再增百亿立方米,为国家能源安全和新型能源体系建设提供坚实支撑。

       

      Abstract: Amid intensifying international rivalry and overlapping supply-demand imbalances, ensuring oil and gas resource security has become increasingly critical. China has long faced a supply-demand gap in oil and gas with persistently high external dependence—exceeding 70% for oil and 40% for natural gas in 2025—making accelerating technological breakthroughs and capacity expansion in domestic exploration and production pivotal for energy security. Based on a three-dimensional framework of “global geopolitics-economic cycles-energy transition”, this paper systematically analyzes the 2025 global and domestic oil and gas market dynamics, leveraging public reports from authoritative institutions (IMF, IEA, EIA, OPEC) and continuous tracking of international events and energy trends. It conducts longitudinal comparisons of core indicators with 2020 (onset of the “Dual Carbon” goals) and 2021 (start of the 14th Five-Year Plan), alongside cross-sectional comparisons with major consumers (U.S., India) using 2025 data. The results show that evolving geopolitics and trade policy uncertainties have reinforced global economic slowdown expectations. Combined with OPEC+ production hikes and high non-OPEC output, the international oil market has loosened, with oil prices fluctuating broadly downward. The global natural gas market features regional divergence, easing supply-demand, and reduced volatility, driven by geopolitics, market fundamentals, and weather. China’s economy has remained stable with growth, while energy consumption has shown steady moderate growth. Significant exploration breakthroughs in major petroliferous basins and offshore areas have driven oil and gas production to a historic high, sustaining “stable oil, growing gas” momentum with a notable increase in unconventional oil and gas share and a shift in natural gas consumption toward livelihood sectors. However, challenges persist, including concentrated crude oil import sources and low self-sufficiency. Looking to 2026, the global oil market will remain loose, with oil prices projected to fluctuate downward. Natural gas prices will diverge—U.S. prices may rebound, while global prices are constrained by European inventories and moderate Asian demand, precluding sharp rises. Domestic oil and gas production will continue to grow, with stable crude output and 10 billion cubic meters of additional natural gas annually, strongly supporting national energy security and the construction of a new energy system.

       

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