2026年全球矿业展望

    Global mining outlook in 2026

    • 摘要: 2025年,世界经济经历了帝国主义、贸易保护主义和资源民族主义的多重冲击,整体增速呈现分化态势:美国经济增速放缓,其他发达经济体增减不一,新兴和发展中经济体增速普遍低于2024年。受到关税政策影响,加拿大、巴西等主要矿产资源国经济增速显著下降。全球矿产勘查投资持续第三年下降,但结构性特征突出,金矿等矿产勘查投资逆势上升,西非金矿勘查热度持续,科特迪瓦成为非洲勘查投资最多的国家;拉丁美洲仍为全球重要的矿产勘查目的地,铜矿、金矿是主要勘查矿种,巴西等国的离子型稀土项目成为国际投资者关注的重要对象。矿产品价格呈现显著分化,原油、煤炭、天然气和铁矿石等大宗矿产价格持续低迷,黄金等金属价格屡创新高,锂、钴等电池矿产价格大幅回升。世界粗钢产量同比下降,但印度粗钢产量保持两位数增长。智利、刚果(金)等主要产铜国因矿山事故导致产量下降,而能源转型、人工智能和数据中心的快速发展推动铜需求攀升,铜市场供应趋紧。全球最大矿业公司市值创新高,行业并购活动增加,但矿业公司普遍面临信心不足、可持续运营挑战加剧等问题。世界各国对战略性矿产资源的安全供应和管控的重视程度显著提升,通过多种手段保障稀土等矿产的本土开发生产和海外供应稳定。展望2026年,地缘经济对抗将进一步加剧,世界经济前景面临较大不确定性,全球矿业发展将遭遇多重挑战,各国在国防安全、能源转型和新兴产业所需的关键矿产领域的竞争将更趋激烈。

       

      Abstract: The world economy experienced manifold shocks from imperialism, trade protectionism in 2025, and resource nationalism with a divergent trend of growth rates: US economy was slowing down, while other developed economies were experiencing mixed growth, with emerging and developing economies generally growing slower than in 2024. Due to tariff policies, the economic growth rates of major mineral resource countries such as Canada and Brazil have declined significantly. Global mineral exploration budget declined for the third consecutive year, but structural features are prominent. Investment in mineral exploration, including gold, bucked the trend and increased. Rush gold exploration in West Africa continues, with Côte d'Ivoire becoming the country with the most exploration investment in Africa. Latin America remains an important destination for mineral exploration, with copper and gold being the main minerals being explored. Rare earth projects, especially ion-adsorption deposits in countries like Brazil have become major targets for international investors. Mineral commodity prices show significant divergence, prices of major mineral commodities such as crude oil, coal, natural gas and iron ore are sluggish, but that of metals such as gold continue to reach new heights, and that of battery minerals such as lithium and cobalt have rebounded significantly. World crude steel production declined year-on-year, but India’s crude steel production maintains double-digit growth. Major copper-producing countries such as Chile and the Democratic Republic of Congo have seen a decline in production due to mine accidents, while the energy transition, artificial intelligence, and rapid deployment of data centers have driven up copper demand, leading to a tightening of copper supply. Global top mining companies have reached a record market capitalization, and mergers and acquisitions have increased. However, mining companies face many challenges, including insufficient investment confidence and challenges to sustainable operation. Countries around the world are placing greater emphasis on the secure supply and tight control of strategic mineral resources, sparing no effort to ensure the domestic development and overseas supply of minerals such as rare earths etc. Looking ahead to 2026, geoeconomic confrontation will intensify further, the global macroeconomic outlook is less optimistic, and the global mining industry will also face various challenges. Competition will become more intense among countries for key minerals needed for national defense, energy transition and emerging industries.

       

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