2025年中国矿产资源形势回顾与展望

    Overview of mineral resources situation of China in 2025 and outlook

    • 摘要: 2025年,全球经济韧性增长与发展风险共存,权威机构预测全球经济增长3.2%,2026年将放缓至2.9%。在全球人工智能产业浪潮兴起、地缘政治紧张局势升级、贸易保护主义加剧的大背景下,全球矿业市场稳中有升,投资者对矿业市场的信心明显好转,国际矿产品价格剧烈震荡、分化显著。面对更加复杂严峻的国际环境,中国经济顶住压力、稳中有进,矿业市场持续平稳向好,表现为:全国矿产资源勘查开发力度加大,地质勘查投资、采矿业固定资产投资和增加值持续增长;主要矿产品生产平稳,十种有色金属、磷矿石等产量均保持增长;能源供应保障能力继续提升,原煤、原油和天然气产量均创历史新高;能源绿色化转型加快,清洁能源装机规模不断扩大,清洁能源消费占一次能源比重不断提升;矿产品贸易规模保持高位,矿产品贸易总额约占全国商品贸易总额的四分之一。大宗矿产品外采度处于高位,石油、天然气、铁矿石外采度分别为72.2%、40.3%和80.9%。矿业对经济和政治影响不断增强,采矿业和冶炼加工业利润占到工业企业利润的近40%,矿产品进口额约占商品进口总额的40%。未来,在国家战略安全层面应更加关注矿业市场,通过深化地质资料社会服务,激活矿产资源勘查市场,同时利用“AI+地质资料”,赋能探矿权出让,以确保矿产资源供应链安全和国家安全。

       

      Abstract: In 2025, the global economy experienced resilient growth alongside development risks. Authoritative institutions forecast global economic growth at 3.2%, with a projected slowdown to 2.9% in 2026. Against the backdrop of the rising global artificial intelligence industry wave, escalating geopolitical tensions, and intensifying trade protectionism, the global mining market remained stable with slight growth. Investor confidence in the mining market improved significantly, while international mineral product prices experience sharp fluctuations and significant divergence. Faced with a more complex and severe international environment, China’s economy withstood pressure and achieved stable progress. China’s mining market continues its steady and positive trend, reflect in the following aspects: the national exploration and development of mineral resources has been strengthened; the investments in geological exploration, fixed asset investment and value-added output in the mining industry have showing sustained growth. Production of major mineral products is steady, with growth in ten non-ferrous metals, phosphate rock, and others. Energy supply security continues to improve, with coal, crude oil, and natural gas production reaching record highs. The transition to greener energy accelerates, with clean energy installed capacity continuously expanding and its share in primary energy consumption increasing. Mineral product trade volume remains high, accounting for approximately one-quarter of the nation’s total commodity trade. The external dependence on bulk mineral products remains high, with rates for petroleum, natural gas, and iron ore at 72.2%, 40.3%, and 80.9%, respectively. The mining industry’s economic and political influence continues to grow, with the profits from mining and processing industries nearly 40% of the industrial enterprise profits, and mineral product imports constituting over 40% of total import value of commodities. Therefore, at the national strategic security level, it should pay more attention to the mining market, activate the mineral resources exploration market by deepening the social service of geological data, and utilize “AI + geological data” to empower the transfer of mineral exploration rights, so as to ensure the mineral resources supply chain and national security.

       

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