黄淮海平原煤粮复合区耕地系统健康时空演变及驱动因素研究:以徐州市为例

    Spatio-temporal evolution and driving factors of farmland system health in coal-grain composite zone of the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain: a case study of Xuzhou City

    • 摘要: 本研究以探寻煤粮复合区耕地系统健康时空演变特征和主要驱动因素为目的,选取黄淮海平原煤粮复合区典型代表城市徐州市作为研究对象,并结合当地产业特点以多源遥感、土壤监测及社会经济发展状况数据为基础,综合运用多元线性回归、GEE遥感分析和GIS空间分析等方法,构建了徐州市耕地系统健康综合评价模型并识别了其核心驱动因素。研究结论表明:①徐州市耕地系统健康状况呈先降后升趋势,总体健康得分从52.455提升至56.672;时间上,徐州市耕地系统健康状况于2000—2010年间略有恶化,2011年后逐年提升,总体稳中向好。空间上,徐州市东部和东南部健康状况较好且持续改善;中部地区前期一度恶化,后期逐步恢复;北部和西北部受矿区开发影响健康水平最低,但2015年后也有所提升。②社会经济因素中,城市年均GDP和人口密度是核心因素,二者对徐州市耕地系统健康具有显著负向影响,仅耕地到道路距离因素呈正相关;自然因素中,核心因素为年均降水和土壤有机质含量,二者皆对徐州市耕地系统健康起正向影响作用,同时年均地表温度与有效耕层厚度影响程度较高,但都对徐州市耕地系统健康起负向影响作用;土壤污染因素中,影响力较高的重金属含量和pH值均对耕地系统健康产生负向影响作用。本文所构建的耕地系统健康评估框架为城市耕地现状评估提供基础,同时可为同类地区提升耕地韧性和缓解采煤对粮食安全与生态的长期压力提供经验参考。

       

      Abstract: This study aims to explore the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and primary driving factors of farmland system health in coal-grain composite zones. Selecting Xuzhou City, a typical representative of such areas in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, as the research object, and integrating local industrial characteristics, the study is based on multi-source remote sensing, soil monitoring, and socio-economic development data. A comprehensive evaluation model for the health of Xuzhou’s farmland system is constructed, and its core driving factors are identified, by employing a combination of methods including the multiple linear regression, GEE remote sensing analysis, and GIS spatial analysis. The findings indicate that: ①the health condition of the farmland system in Xuzhou shows a trend of initial decline followed by an increase, with the overall health score rising from 52.455 to 56.672. Temporally, the health condition of farmland system in Xuzhou deteriorated slightly from 2000 to 2010, but improved year by year after 2011, showing overall stability with positive trends. Spatially, the eastern and southeastern parts of Xuzhou City exhibit better health conditions with continuous improvement; the central region experiences deterioration in the early stage but gradually recovers later; the northern and northwestern areas, impacted by mining development, had the lowest health levels, although improvements are observed after 2015. ②Among socio-economic factors, the urban annual average GDP and population density are core factors, both exerting a significant negative impact on the health of the farmland system in Xuzhou, with only the distance from farmland to roads showing a positive correlation. Among natural factors, the core factors are annual average precipitation and soil organic matter content, both positively influencing farmland system health in Xuzhou. Meanwhile, the annual average of land surface temperature and effective soil thickness have a relatively high impact, but both negatively affected farmland system health in Xuzhou. Among soil pollution factors, the highly influential heavy metal content and pH value both have negative impacts on farmland system health. The farmland system health assessment framework constructed in this paper provides a basis for assessing the current status of farmland system, and can also provide experience and reference for similar regions to improve the resilience of farmland and alleviate the long-term pressure of coal mining on food security and ecology.

       

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