镍产业链贸易网络格局演化及其韧性研究

    Research on the pattern evolution and resilience of the nickel industrial chain trade network

    • 摘要: 镍资源作为战略性新兴产业发展的重要原材料,其产业链韧性关乎中国“双碳”目标的实现。从贸易网络分析镍产业链格局演化特征,研究贸易网络结构韧性,有助于优化镍产业链布局,提升贸易网络结构韧性。本文基于2012—2024年全球镍产业链贸易数据,运用复杂网络分析方法和双变量贸易网络结构韧性模型,分析了镍产业链上游、中游和下游的贸易网络格局及其韧性演化趋势。研究发现:①贸易总体格局呈现为中国、美国和欧盟三足鼎立。就网络结构而言,镍产业链贸易网络结构较为稳定,中游和下游网络密度不断上升,形成“核心-边缘”的贸易格局;其交互效率较为稳定,受外界影响较小;下游有较为显著的集聚效应,核心国家的贸易地位不断上升。②就节点度而言,中国、美国和欧盟是镍产业链贸易网络中的核心节点国家(地区),在镍的全球贸易中起决定性作用。③就网络韧性而言,从层级性上看,上游贸易网络具有更强的网络连通性,下游贸易网络中核心国家的地位更为突出。匹配性上都表现为异质性,镍产业链贸易网络具有较好的交流性和互补性,节点能够更容易突破僵化的路径向外传播。④就网络类型而言,镍产业链都呈现为韧性网络。就韧性演化而言,镍产业链总体呈现韧性上升的趋势,综合水平表现为上游韧性>中游韧性>下游韧性。中国应当加大镍资源保障力度,提高镍资源自给率;加快镍资源布局脚步,增强镍资源产业链韧性;建立镍资源保障机制,完善相关体制。

       

      Abstract: As a critical raw material for the development of strategic emerging industries, the resilience of the nickel industrial chain is vital to achieving China’s “dual carbon” goals. Analyzing the evolutionary characteristics of the nickel industrial chain’s trade network and studying the structural resilience of trade networks can help optimize the layout of the nickel industrial chain and enhance the resilience of its trade network structure. Based on global nickel industrial chain trade data from 2012 to 2024, this paper employs complex network analysis and a bivariate trade network resilience model to examine the trade network patterns and resilience evolution trends across the upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors of the nickel industrial chain. The study finds that: ①the global trade network exhibits a tripartite dominance by China, the United States, and the European Union. Structurally, the nickel industrial chain’s trade network remains stable, with increasing network density in midstream and downstream sectors, forming a “core-periphery” trade pattern. Interaction efficiency is stable and less affected by external factors, while downstream sectors show significant agglomeration effects, with core countries strengthening their trade dominance. ② China, the United States, and the EU are core nodes in the nickel trade network, playing decisive roles in global nickel trade. ③ The upstream trade network exhibits stronger connectivity, whereas downstream trade networks highlight the prominence of core countries. The nickel industrial chain’s trade network demonstrates strong heterogeneity, enabling efficient communication and complementarity, allowing nodes to break rigid pathways and expand influence. ④ In terms of network types, the nickel industrial chain exhibits the characteristics of a resilient network. Regarding the evolution of resilience, the nickel industrial chain generally shows an upward trend in resilience, with the overall resilience level following the order: upstream resilience > midstream resilience > downstream resilience. China should strengthen nickel resource security and improve self-sufficiency rates; accelerate strategic nickel resource deployment to enhance industrial chain resilience; establish a nickel resource safeguard mechanism and refine related institutional frameworks.

       

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