Abstract:
As a critical raw material for the development of strategic emerging industries, the resilience of the nickel industrial chain is vital to achieving China’s “dual carbon” goals. Analyzing the evolutionary characteristics of the nickel industrial chain’s trade network and studying the structural resilience of trade networks can help optimize the layout of the nickel industrial chain and enhance the resilience of its trade network structure. Based on global nickel industrial chain trade data from 2012 to 2024, this paper employs complex network analysis and a bivariate trade network resilience model to examine the trade network patterns and resilience evolution trends across the upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors of the nickel industrial chain. The study finds that: ①the global trade network exhibits a tripartite dominance by China, the United States, and the European Union. Structurally, the nickel industrial chain’s trade network remains stable, with increasing network density in midstream and downstream sectors, forming a “core-periphery” trade pattern. Interaction efficiency is stable and less affected by external factors, while downstream sectors show significant agglomeration effects, with core countries strengthening their trade dominance. ② China, the United States, and the EU are core nodes in the nickel trade network, playing decisive roles in global nickel trade. ③ The upstream trade network exhibits stronger connectivity, whereas downstream trade networks highlight the prominence of core countries. The nickel industrial chain’s trade network demonstrates strong heterogeneity, enabling efficient communication and complementarity, allowing nodes to break rigid pathways and expand influence. ④ In terms of network types, the nickel industrial chain exhibits the characteristics of a resilient network. Regarding the evolution of resilience, the nickel industrial chain generally shows an upward trend in resilience, with the overall resilience level following the order: upstream resilience > midstream resilience > downstream resilience. China should strengthen nickel resource security and improve self-sufficiency rates; accelerate strategic nickel resource deployment to enhance industrial chain resilience; establish a nickel resource safeguard mechanism and refine related institutional frameworks.