中国上市矿业企业股价波动溢出的系统性风险熵演化研究

    Evolution of systemic risk entropy of stock price volatility spillovers among listed mining enterprises in China

    • 摘要: 为探究复杂多变的宏观环境下中国矿业板块中系统性金融风险的演变逻辑,以近12年60家代表性上市矿业企业为样本,运用DCC-GARCH模型、广义预测误差方差分解(GVFEVD)与复杂网络理论,构建动态风险溢出网络。引入系统性风险熵(SRE)表征网络稳定性与市场脆弱性,以解析系统风险演化的内在机制。研究结果表明:从网络拓扑性质与SRE的演化特征来看,该溢出网络表现出非线性波动与强周期属性,SRE长期在以0.59为中枢的水平上维持动态平衡,并伴随4~5年为一个周期的系统极端脆弱时期;从网络关键行业演变来看,历次宏观冲击促使网络核心行业发生更迭,由政策驱动下的传统大宗商品相关行业向金融市场波动下的能源化工行业演进,并在极端突发公共事件中短暂变为实体商贸流通行业,最终在地缘冲突背景下回归至基础战略能源产业;网络拓扑结构构成系统演变的核心内生变量,从网络拓扑性质与SRE的同期影响来看,网络密度与聚类系数对SRE有显著的负向作用,而平均路径长度对SRE存在正向作用;从滞后关系来看,在短期滞后区间内,网络密度与聚类系数的增大会加剧系统性风险传染、降低系统稳定性,而在中长期滞后区间内,网络密度与聚类系数能促使系统性风险降低并稳步提升系统稳定性。基于以上研究,建议在监管框架中增加基于SRE的监测预警机制,并施加因矿制宜的风险疏导策略,以管控中国矿业系统中的金融风险,重塑系统整体韧性。

       

      Abstract: To explore the evolutionary logic of systemic risk in China’s mining sector under a complex and volatile macroeconomic environment, a dynamic risk spillover network is constructed using the DCC-GARCH model, generalized volatility forecast error variance decomposition (GVFEVD) and complex network theory, based on a sample of 60 representative listed mining enterprises over the past 12 years. Systemic risk entropy (SRE) is introduced to characterize the overall stability and market vulnerability of the network, with the aim of deconstructing the internal mechanisms of systemic risk evolution. The results indicate that the spillover network is characterized by nonlinear volatility and strong cyclical attributes based on network topological properties and SRE evolutionary characteristics. A dynamic equilibrium of SRE is maintained at a central level of 0.59 over the long term, accompanied by periods of extreme systemic vulnerability with a cycle of approximately 4 to 5 years. Regarding the evolution of key network industries, the succession of core network industries is triggered by historical macroeconomic shocks. An evolution from policy-driven traditional commodity-related industries to energy and chemical industries under financial market volatility is observed. Furthermore, a brief focus on the real commercial circulation industry is generated during extreme public emergencies, which ultimately returns to the basic strategic energy industries under the background of geopolitical conflicts. The network topological structure is identified as the core endogenous variable of systemic evolution. In terms of the contemporaneous impact, a significant negative effect on SRE is exerted by network density and the clustering coefficient, while a positive effect is produced by the average path length. Considering the lagged relationship, in the short-term lag period, an increase in network density and clustering coefficient exacerbates systemic risk contagion and reduces system stability; whereas, in the medium- to long-term lag period, network density and clustering coefficient can effectively absorb external shocks, thereby reduce systemic risk and steadily enhancing system stability. Based on the above research, an SRE-based monitoring and early warning mechanism is recommended to be embedded in the regulatory framework, and mining-specific risk mitigation strategies are suggested to be implemented to control the systemic risk of China’s mining industry and reshape the overall resilience of the system.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回