矿产资源富集省份碳足迹时空演化及影响因素分析:以晋陕蒙地区为例

    Spatio-temporal evolution of carbon footprint in mineral-rich provinces and analysis of influencing factors: a case study of the Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia Region

    • 摘要: 晋陕蒙地区多元协同发展的能源结构,使其碳排放源呈现出类型多样、空间集聚等特征。在“双碳”目标的长期约束下,开展碳足迹测度与驱动机制研究,可为低碳减排的分区分级和协同治理提供科学依据。基于“类NPP-VIIRS”夜间灯光、表观碳排放、净初级生产力与土地利用等数据构建碳足迹计算模型,测算2000—2021年晋陕蒙地区碳足迹。借助探索性时空数据分析等方法揭示该区域碳足迹时空动态演变格局。利用改进型Tapio脱钩模型评估经济增长与碳环境压力的动态脱钩关系,并引入多尺度地理加权回归模型,识别影响因素的空间异质性。研究结果表明:晋陕蒙地区碳足迹总增量为791.810×104 km2、年均增长率11.930%。省、市(盟)两级碳足迹总体上升且不同省市分布不均,少数城市长期处于高值状态。市(盟)级碳足迹呈显著空间正相关,且部分区域集聚类型长期保持一致。2000—2021年研究区经济增长与碳环境压力经历了由弱脱钩为主到多类型并存的演化过程。能源消费强度与经济发展水平在多数城市对碳足迹具有稳定推升作用,而第二产业结构、城镇化、政府干预等因素对碳足迹的影响具有明显的区域分化,自然环境因子能有效降低碳足迹值但城市间的影响强度与方向存在差异。研究内容可为晋陕蒙地区实施差异化减排策略提供依据,对推动资源型地区绿色低碳转型与“双碳”目标达成具有参考价值。

       

      Abstract: The Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia Region is characterized by a multi-energy coordinated development pattern, resulting in diverse carbon emission sources and pronounced spatial clustering. Under the long-term constraints of the “dual-carbon” goals, investigating carbon footprint measurement and its driving mechanisms can provide a scientific basis for region-specific, tiered low-carbon mitigation and coordinated governance. In this study, a carbon footprint accounting model is developed by integrating “NPP-VIIRS-like” nighttime light data, Carbon Emission Accounts and Datasets(CEADs), net primary productivity, and China Land Cover Dataset(CLCD) to estimate the carbon footprint of the Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia Region from 2000 to 2021. Exploratory spatiotemporal data analysis is applied to reveal the spatio-temporal evolution of carbon footprints. An improved Tapio decoupling model is used to assess the dynamic relationship between economic growth and carbon-environmental pressure, and a multiscale geographically weighted regression model is employed to identify the spatial heterogeneity of influencing factors. The results show that the cumulative increase in carbon footprint in the study area reaches 791.810×104 km2, with an average annual growth rate of 11.930%. Carbon footprints at both the provincial and municipal(league) levels exhibit an overall upward trend, with marked interprovincial and intercity disparities. A small number of cities maintain persistently high carbon footprint levels, and this pattern intensify over time. At the municipal(league) scale, carbon footprints show significant positive spatial autocorrelation, and some agglomeration patterns remain stable over the long term. From 2000 to 2021, the relationship between economic growth and carbon-environmental pressure in the study area evolve from predominantly weak decoupling to a stage characterized by the coexistence of multiple decoupling states. Energy consumption intensity and economic development consistently exert positive effects on carbon footprint growth in most cities. By contrast, the effects of industrial structure, urbanization, and government intervention display strong regional heterogeneity. Natural environmental factors generally contribute to carbon footprint reduction, although the magnitude and direction of their effects varied across cities. These findings provide empirical support for differentiated emission reduction strategies in the Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia Region and offer useful reference for promoting green and low-carbon transformation in resource-based areas and advancing the “dual-carbon” goals.

       

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