Abstract: Against the backdrop of China’s “dual-carbon” goals and intensifying global competition for critical mineral resources, scientifically characterizing the carbon emission structure of China’s vanadium industry and its global supply chain linkages has become a key prerequisite for enhancing the industry’s security and low-carbon competitiveness. This study employs a global input-output model to disaggregate China’s vanadium industry from a life-cycle perspective and embed it into the world input-output framework, thereby reconstructing its economic linkages with domestic and foreign sectors. Using a power-driven grey prediction model and the RAS method, it extrapolates the 2015-2022 input-output data and construct the industry structure for 2023-2025, enabling a continuous measurement and dynamic depiction of the upstream and downstream production carbon footprint of China’s vanadium industry from 2015 to 2025. The purpose of this measurement is to identify key emission nodes and transmission pathways, assess the emission externalities embedded in international supply chains, and provide a quantitative basis for pinpointing high-carbon segments, formulating coordinated upstream-downstream emission reduction strategies, and building a green and resilient supply chain. The results reveal three salient features. ①Upstream emissions are highly concentrated: during 2015-2022, about 98.6% came from the electric power transmission sector; during 2023-2025, the upstream emission center shifts significantly toward the steel sector, accounting for approximately 69.6%. ②Downstream emissions are deeply coupled with the steel and equipment manufacturing industries: from 2015 to 2025, the steel industry consistently accounts for 40%-80% of downstream emissions, with further diffusion into machinery manufacturing and fabricated metal products. ③The international supply chain is widely distributed, with upstream resources and intermediate goods primarily sourced from Australia, Brazil, and regions across Asia and the Middle East, and a substantial amount of embodied carbon flowing into China through trade. The study concludes that the low-carbon transition of China’s vanadium industry should focus on high-emission segments, promote coordinated emission reductions along the upstream-downstream chain, and build an open, resilient, and green global supply chain system. The findings provide theoretical and empirical support for full-chain emission reduction policies, green governance of global supply chains, and international cooperation mechanisms for critical minerals.