美国碲“关键地位”决策逻辑及对我国战略应对的启示

    Analysis of the decision-making logic behind the U.S. “critical status” of tellurium and its implications for China’s strategic responses

    • 摘要: 碲是全球大国战略博弈的关键金属之一,已经被美国、英国、澳大利亚等多国列入关键矿产清单。近期,美国围绕碲“关键地位”的战略考量从提议剔除到最终保留,折射出其在“经济理性”与“战略安全”之间的权衡。系统分析美国的碲资源禀赋、产业链结构与政策取向,对优化我国碲资源安全保障策略具有重要意义。本文梳理了碲在传统工业、新能源、半导体及国防等领域的多元应用,重点依托美国地质调查局(USGS)数据,分析了美国在碲资源储量、生产格局、进出口动态、产业链结构及军事应用等方面的特征,并剖析了美国在“关键地位”决策中的经济影响评估、国内供应链韧性、军事战略需求等多重考量逻辑。研究结果显示:近年来美国国内碲资源供应能力显著增强,外部供应中断对其GDP和供应链的影响有限。同时,在碲化镉光伏电池领域形成的完整技术与产业链优势,以及国防军事装备中碲基材料的重要性,成为其保留碲“关键地位”的核心动因。面对美国政策调整与全球碲需求持续增长的双重挑战,我国应在巩固碲资源优势的同时,加快碲产业从初级产品向高纯碲、碲锌镉晶片等高附加值领域转型,突破高端制备技术瓶颈,实现从资源驱动向技术驱动的产业升级。同时,建立碲资源产业动态响应机制,通过“储备-贸易-回收”等多重弹性调控手段,灵活应对全球供需格局变化、美国等主要经济体的政策动向,确保碲资源战略在复杂环境中保持前瞻性与主动权。

       

      Abstract: Tellurium is one of the key metals in the strategic rivalry of major global powers, and it has been included in the critical minerals lists of several countries, including the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia. Recently, the United States’ strategic considerations regarding tellurium’s “critical status” shifted from a proposal to remove it to ultimately retaining it, reflecting a trade-off between “economic rationality” and “strategic security”. A systematic analysis of the tellurium resource endowments, industrial chain structures, and policy orientations of United States is of great significance for optimizing China’s tellurium resource security strategy. This paper reviews the diverse applications of tellurium in traditional industries, new energy, semiconductors, and defense. Drawing on data from the U.S. Geological Survey, it analyzes the characteristics of the United States in terms of tellurium reserves, production landscape, import and export dynamics, industrial chain structure, and military applications. Concurrently, it investigates the multiple considerations underlying the U.S. decision-making on tellurium’s “critical status”, including economic impact assessments, domestic supply chain resilience, and military strategic needs. The findings reveal that in recent years, the United States has significantly strengthened its domestic tellurium supply capacity, making the impact of external supply disruptions on its GDP and supply chain relatively limited. At the same time, its comprehensive technological and industrial chain advantages in the cadmium telluride photovoltaic sector, combined with the irreplaceable role of tellurium-based materials in defense equipment have become the key driver behind the retention of tellurium’s “critical status”. In response to the dual challenges posed by U.S. policy adjustments and the continued growth in global tellurium demand, China should consolidate its tellurium resource advantages while accelerating the transition from primary products to high-value-added sectors such as high-purity tellurium and CdZnTe wafers, breaking through bottlenecks in high-end preparation technologies to achieve a technology-driven industrial upgrade. Meanwhile, it should establish a dynamic response mechanism for the tellurium industry, using flexible instruments— “stockpiling, trade, and recycling”—to adapt to changes in global supply-demand dynamics and policy shifts of major economies like the U.S., thus maintaining a forward-looking and proactive tellurium resource strategy in a complex environment.

       

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