2020—2025年全球能源资源供需格局演化特征与驱动因素分析

    Analysis of the evolution characteristics and driving factors of the global energy and mineral resources supply-demand pattern from 2020 to 2025

    • 摘要: 2020—2025年,在能源转型、新一轮科技革命和地缘政治冲突等交织的复杂背景下,全球能源资源供需格局呈现结构性分化与动态重构特征。本文基于近年来全球主要能源资源市场供需数据,分析新形势下能源资源供需格局演变特征及其驱动因素,以期为把握全球能源资源市场走势、保障产业链供应链稳定和制定相关产业政策提供参考。研究结果表明:能源矿产方面,供需增速总体放缓,亚太地区成为需求增长核心。其中,石油市场在OPEC+产量调控和地缘博弈中向供需过剩转变;天然气格局深刻重塑,美国成为LNG最大出口国,市场份额增长至28.6%,俄罗斯供应重心加速东移;煤炭在能源安全担忧下阶段反弹,但长期下降趋势不变,全球煤炭生产和消费中心加速向亚太地区转移。矿产资源方面,呈现“传统矿产结构失衡、战略性新兴矿产分化”特征,铁矿石供应持续过剩,铜供应增量有限而维持紧平衡,铝则因产能供给刚性约束与绿色需求扩张而出现结构性短缺;战略性新兴矿产在经历需求爆发与价格飙升后,短期因产能集中释放与技术冲击下供需向供应过剩转变,锂供应过剩情况有所改善,钴在政策干预下转向实质性短缺,镍则转向深度过剩、2025年达29.03万t。贵金属方面,黄金的避险属性与央行购金需求共同支撑市场,供需维持紧平衡;白银因光伏与AI等工业需求激增,持续结构性短缺,2025年供应缺口3 660.94 t;铂金因供给受限与氢能应用拓展而由供应过剩转向深度短缺。总体来看,新形势下全球能源资源供需格局正处于持续调整期,区域分化、供需错配与供应链安全问题日益凸显。

       

      Abstract: Under the complex background of global energy transition, a new round of technological revolution, and geopolitical conflicts from 2020 to 2025, the global supply-demand pattern of energy and mineral resources has undergone marked structural differentiation and dynamic restructuring. Based on supply and demand data for major energy and mineral resources over the past years, this study analyzes the evolving characteristics of this pattern and its underlying driving factors. It aims to provide a reference for understanding global market trends, ensuring the stability of industrial and supply chains, and formulating relevant industrial policies. For energy resources, the research indicates that the overall growth rate of supply and demand has slowed, and the Asia Pacific region has become the core of demand growth. Under the background of OPEC+ production adjustments and geopolitical maneuvering, the oil market is shifting towards oversupply. The natural gas market has been profoundly reshaped, with the United States becoming the world’s largest LNG exporter and its market share growing to 28.6%, while Russia is accelerating the eastward shift of its supply focus. Coal experienced a temporary rebound amid energy security concerns, but its long-term downward trend remains unchanged. Meanwhile, the global coal production and consumption center is accelerating the transfer to the Asia Pacific region. For mineral resources, a significant characteristic of “structure imbalance in traditional minerals and divergence in strategic emerging minerals” is observed. The iron ore market continues to be in surplus, the copper market maintains a tight balance due to limited supply increment, and the aluminum market faces a structural deficit driven by rigid supply constraints and expanding green demand. The supply and demand of strategic emerging minerals transfer towards oversupply due to concentrated release of production capacity and technological shocks after a phase of explosive demand growth and price spikes. The surplus pressure of lithium has eased to some extent, the cobalt market has shifted to a substantial shortage under policy intervention, while nickel has turned to a deep surplus, with cumulative surpluses of 290 300 tonnes in 2025. In the precious metals sector, the gold market is supported by both its safe-haven attribute and sustained central bank purchases, maintaining a tight balance. Driven by surging industrial demand from photovoltaics and AI sectors, silver continues to experience a structural shortage, with a supply deficit of 3 660.94 tonnes in 2025. The platinum market has shifted from oversupply to a deep deficit, constrained by supply limitations and the expansion of hydrogen energy applications. Overall, the global supply-demand pattern is undergoing a continuous adjustment period, with regional differentiation, supply-demand mismatches, and supply chain security issues becoming increasingly prominent under the new pattern.

       

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